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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for July 29

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Well, we made it through yesterday’s pitching mess. Congratulations to all of you for being here once again after struggling to pick two pitchers we felt confident in. Wednesday brings some normalcy to the position with a lot of names we recognize and actually want to play!

This piece will cover the main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $500K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Andrew Heaney, $7,900, LAA (-230) vs. SEA (+190) — I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Gerrit Cole ($11,400) and the Yankees are going to ultimately end up as the biggest favorites on the evening but as I write this early Wednesday morning, the line for that game was unavailable. With that in mind, Heaney is your heavy favorite among the rest of the game. He had a very solid debut against the A’s, tossing four and two thirds innings while allowing just one run on two hits and striking out six. It’s still very early in the season but the Mariners are already a target to log some strikeouts with your starting pitchers, posting a 26.8 K% thus far. The one concern here could be the poor numbers that Heaney posted at home last season with a .359 wOBA and a 5.33 FIP, but this is such a poor offense that I’m not going to be overly worried.

Other notable favorites: Jacob deGrom ($12,000; -190) vs. Red Sox, Chris Paddack ($8,400; -175) vs. Giants

Highest Projected Total

KCR (+125) vs. DET (-143) 9.5 runs — Not exactly two teams I would think would have the highest projected total (of the line released at the time) but here we are. The Tigers are the favorites in this one as they are set to face Danny Duffy ($7,100), who is making his second start. We saw him take the loss against Indians, allowing two runs on three hits and two strikeouts through four and one third innings. The Tigers actually have some good bats against lefties with C.J. Cron ($3,200), Miguel Cabera ($3,000) and Jonathan Schoop ($3,300), all dirt cheap with good power. The only problem is, you’ll only be able to play one of either Cron or Cabrera, as both are listed at first base. If it’s very expensive pitchers to long for tonight, a small Tigers stack may just assist you with getting that done with their 4.5 team total.

Other notable team totals: Angels (5.5) vs. Mariners, Brewers (4.5) vs. Pirates, Padres (4.5) vs. Giants

Weather Concerns

Clear night of baseball!

Splits to Start

Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Nathan Eovaldi, .391, 7.84
Asher Wojciechowski .367, 6.50
Joe Musgrove, .334, 4.17

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .249, 2.76
Jacob deGrom, .270, 3.36
Chris Paddack, .280, 4.31

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Nathan Eovaldi, .345, 4.17
Danny Duffy, .318, 4.82
Asher Wojciechowski, .314, 4.24

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .234, 2.20
Mike Soroka, .235, 2.74
Brandon Woodruff, .240, 2.35

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. BOS, $12,000 — Look, I know. You come to this article for advice and I throw the most expensive pitcher on the slate at you. However, I do think there is some strategy involved here. When building rosters, people are going to see a cheaper Gerrit Cole ($11,400) going against the Orioles and not think about it and lock him in. If people are paying up for Cole, they’re very likely not doing so with deGrom, which brings him in at much lower than usual ownership. If I can get the reigning NL Cy Young in a position like this on the road, where he boasted a .262 wOBA with a 2.59 FIP? I’m taking it.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Michael Conforto, NYM vs. BOS, $4,600 — I usually don’t like to keep writing up the same teams but I mean, the numbers are here in black and white, you have to keep rolling with the Mets. Nathan Eovaldi ($6,800) started the season off well against the Orioles but to be fair, I should start the season well against them. He’s facing a much tougher Mets team and brings his struggles against lefties with him. Last season on the road against lefties, Eovaldi allowed a putrid .403 wOBA with an 8.37 FIP (!) and five home runs. So yeah, go grab ol’ Mikey Conforto.

Save Big by Drafting

C.J. Cron, DET at KCR, $3,200 — I mentioned it earlier about some of the value Tigers’ bats so I’m going to double down on that notion. I can’t get over how cheap Cron is when you consider last season he hit 25 home runs with the Twins. Whenever the faced a lefty, I was getting him in my lineup as he posted a .412 wOBA with a .310 ISO and 11 of his 25 home runs. 17 of the 21 home runs allowed by starter Danny Duffy ($7,100) came against righties, so I’m thinking this type of value on Cron is not to be ignored.

Favorite Team To Stack

NYY at BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) — Talk about someone who got the short end of the stick. A couple of days ago, Wojeiechowski was looking at the schedule, sees he’s lined up to face the Marlins and he was probably looking forward to that. Because it’s 2020, now he suddenly facing the Yankees, at Camden Yards against Gerrit Cole. Yikes.

Last season at Camden Yards, he tossed 39 and one third innings allowing a .359 wOBA with 11 of his 17 home runs allowed. For his sake, he only saw the Yankees once last season but in that start he lasted just four innings, allowing five runs on six hits, five of which went for extra bases.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $500K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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