The PGA TOUR travels to Memphis for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind. TPC Southwind had played host to the St. Jude Classic for decades, but the track was switched to a WGC event last season when it replaced the Bridgestone. Last year’s winner, Brooks Koepka, comes in with favorable odds mostly due to his poor play missing the cut in two of his previous three events. The last four winners of a WGC stroke-play tournament have been Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson, all who rank inside the top 8 in OWGR. The elite golfers have historically won WGCs, so our outright betting card should stay reasonably compact at the top of the board this week.
Rory McIlroy to Win +1150
I usually never advise to bet an outright at this short of a number, but it may be a fraction of this come the weekend. McIlroy’s WGC record is impeccable. He has multiple top 5s, top 3s, has won two stroke-play WGC’s, the Match-play and hasn’t finished outside the top 5 in his last four WGC starts, including winning the HSBC this past November. He has hit double-digits in SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G) in five WGC’s and has gained an average of just under four strokes T2G since returning from the shutdown. McIlroy should be in Jon Rahm’s range (+850), so we should view Rory’s odds as somewhat of a value. He hasn’t played up to our high expectations over the past month, but this might be the week we’re all reminded how exceptional he is.
Xander Schauffele to Win +2000
Similar to the write up in the DraftKings preview, Schauffele should make the card this week. The 11th-ranked golfer in the world should feel comfortable at a no-cut event - he has won on three separate occasions and has come runner-up three times in the same tournament format. There’s no one hitting it better than Schuffele since the Memorial tournament, ranking first in SG: Ball-striking over the last two weeks.
Patrick Reed to Win +3500
We’ve seen other players like Dustin Johnson win back-to-back WGCs, and this could be Reed’s time to join the club. Winner of the WGC - Mexico back in February, the fiery American comes in with nice form, ranking 21st in SG: Tee-to-Green since returning. He has been inconsistent with his short game losing strokes on the greens in two of his last three starts. Still, we shouldn’t be worried about the putter, especially when it’s tough ranking second in SG: Putting over his last 12 rounds in difficult scoring conditions relative to par.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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