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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Values for July 30

Matt LaMarca gives his top value plays for Thursday’s DraftKings MLB slate, which locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Finding the right value plays can be the difference between winning and losing in daily fantasy baseball. The studs may get the glory, but the cheap guys who crush their price tag are the unsung heroes.

Let’s take a look at some guys who can help you save some salary but still provide production for Thursday’s eight-game slate, which kicks off at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Set your lineups here: MLB $400K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]


SP Ross Stripling, LAD @ ARI, $8,400

The Dodgers’ pitching staff was not supposed to look like this. First David Price opted out of the season. Then Clayton Kershaw got hurt. Then Alex Wood got hurt.

That has opened up a big opportunity for Stripling, who quietly put together a very nice season in 2019. He was dominant against right-handed batters, limiting them to an expected wOBA of just .265, and he was no slouch against lefties either. He also possesses a nice combination of groundball rate (50.2%) and strikeout rate (9.23 K/9). Pitchers who can do both of those things are typically able to limit the damage against them.

Stripling put his skill set on display in his first start of the season, limiting the Giants to one run and seven strikeouts over seven innings. He’ll face a tougher test today vs. the Diamondbacks, but only slightly: Their offense ranked just 24th in wRC+ vs. right-handers in 2019.

The Diamondbacks are currently implied for just 4.3 runs, which is one of the lower marks on the slate.


SP Brady Singer, KC @ DET, $6,800

Singer has made just one start at the Major League level, but it was an impressive one. He racked up seven strikeouts and allowed just two runs over five innings vs. the Cleveland Indians. He entered the season as the No. 59 overall prospect according to MLB.com, so he has plenty of future promise as a starting pitcher.

The best news for Singer is that he has a significantly easier matchup than he did in his first start. He’s taking on the Detroit Tigers, who finished dead-last in wRC+ vs. right-handers last season. They have just one batter in their lineup who had an expected wOBA of greater than .334 last season, so don’t expect them to be much better in that category in 2020.


3B: Maikel Franco, KC @ DET, $2,000

I am not sure who is in charge of the pricing here at DraftKings, but I can only assume this is a mistake. How can the projected cleanup batter for a team with an implied team total of 5.2 runs cost the absolute minimum? As a matter of fact, the pricing for the entire Royals’ offense is pretty ridiculous. Seriously, can I speak to a manager or something?

The Royals have a very appealing matchup vs. Ivan Nova, who was pretty dreadful in 2019. He pitched to a 4.98 FIP, and he allowed an expected wOBA of .359 to right-handed batters in particular. Franco isn’t a guy who thrives vs. right-handers – he’s significantly better vs. southpaws – but I’m playing a cleanup hitter at $2,000 10 times out of 10 in cash games.


2B/SS: Jose Peraza, BOS @ NYM, $2,300

This is another player who is going to be really hard to avoid in cash games. Peraza has been occupying the leadoff spot for the Red Sox against left-handers, and the Mets will be sending a left-hander to the mound in Steven Matz. Matz is a fine pitcher – particularly at home, where he dominated in 2019 – but he’s a long way from the top tier of starters in the league. There is no reason you need can’t target batters against him.

The Red Sox are currently implied for 4.3 runs, and leadoff batters with comparable salaries and implied team totals have historically outperformed their salary-based expectations by roughly 1.5 points. Pairing Peraza with Franco lets you do basically whatever you want with the rest of your lineup without sacrificing too much upside.


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OF: Hunter Renfroe, TB @ ATL, $3,700

Renfroe is a similar option to Peraza in a lot of ways. Premium spot in the order? Check. Positive side of his batting splits? Check. Facing a good – but not great – left-handed pitcher? Check.

That pitcher is Max Fried, who pitched to a respectable 4.02 ERA last year. That said, he was clearly at his worst when facing right-handed batters. He allowed them to post a hard hit rate of 39.5%, and opposing righties averaged 1.21 HRs per nine innings against him.

Renfroe absolutely tears the cover off the ball against southpaws, so this matchup doesn’t scare me in the slightest. He posted a hard hit rate of 49.4% when facing a southpaw last season, resulting in a .369 wOBA and .333 ISO.

The low implied team total for the Rays should also result in reduced ownership for Renfroe, which increases his appeal for tournaments.

Set your lineups here: MLB $400K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.