After a couple of days with some really weak pitching options, it’s nice to see some familiar and trustworthy names on the eight-game slate this evening. Of course, that probably means it’s going to be a offense filled night (because of course) but let’s try and be optimistic, ok!?
This piece will cover the main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
J.A. Happ, $10,400, NYY (-235) vs. BAL (+188) — Happ is not only the biggest favorite on the evening but he’s also the most expensive pitcher. He’ll be making his 2020 debut on the road at Camden Yards, a spot he didn’t find much success at last season. Last season at Camden Yards he threw eight innings, allowing eight runs on 14 hits with a .498 wOBA and and 7.59 FIP. Happ was better on the road overall but home runs were an issue no matter where he went, allowing a 1.9 HR/9 through 31 games. This Orioles club is not full of power by any means but I don’t think this is a slam dunk matchup for Happ himself, despite the fact that the Yankees should still be able to get the win. As the most expensive player on this slate, I’ll likely be looking elsewhere.
Other notable favorites: Dylan Bundy ($8,200; -215) vs. Mariners, Ross Stripling ($8,400; -157) vs. Diamondbacks
Highest Projected Total
NYY (-235) vs. BAL (-188) 10.5 runs — This game also has the highest projected total, as one of two games with at least a total of 10, the other being the Royals at Tigers. Don’t be fooled, however, as the Yankees are dominating this total with a 6.5 team total against John Means ($5,800). Means was wrecked by the Yankees last season, allowing 11 runs on 18 hits through 13 innings with a .394 wOBA and a 5.29 FIP. The ironic part is that Means was actually at his best in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards last season but the power the Yankees have against lefties should quickly dispel those numbers. I fully expect the Yankees to be chalky in all facets of the game tonight, so be aware of that when building a tournament lineup.
Other notable team totals: Angels (5.5) vs. Mariners, Dodgers (5.5) vs. Diamondbacks, Royals (5.5) vs. Tigers
Clear night of baseball!
Splits to Start
Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ivan Nova, .347, 5.15
Marco Gonzales, .343, 4.91
Steven Matz, .339, 4.84
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
John Means, .235, 2.96
Martin Perez, .260, 3.02
Robbie Ray, .272, 2.91
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Ivan Nova, .355, 4.81
Martin Perez, .353, 5.13
J.A. Happ, .345, 5.64
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Ryan Yarbrough, .265, 3.40
Shane Bieber, .273, 2.98
Ross Stripling, .289, 3.24
Pitcher to Build Around
Max Fried, ATL vs. TB, $8,900 — I’m thinking Fried is going to be overlooked tonight and that might be a mistake. The Rays do have some decent power against lefties with guys like Hunter Renfroe ($3,700), Yandy Diaz ($3,800) and Jose Martinez ($4,500), but they also bring some very high strikeout upside. Aside from Martinez, everyone in this lineup had at least a 20 K% against lefties last season. As for Fried, he was great at home, allowing just a .289 wOBA with a 3.15 FIP and eight of his 21 home runs allowed.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Justin Turner, LAD at. ARI, $5,200 — The strikeout upside that Robbie Ray ($7,100) brings to the table is insane. Use his last start against the Padres as an example as he struck out seven through three and two thirds innings. When he wasn’t striking guys out though, he allowed three runs on four hits. Now, he’ll be pitching at home against a very good Dodgers offense against lefties. Turner is my primary target in this spot after destroying lefties on the road to the tune of a .480 wOBA with a .352 ISO and eight home runs. Against lefties, Turner has been batting third in this lineup, ensuring he’s seeing plenty of pitches with Cody Bellinger ($5,300) looming behind him.
Save Big by Drafting
Albert Pujols, LAA at SEA, $3,800 — You’re likely not seeking out playing Pujols on a day-to-day basis but he continues to be a very strong play against lefties. Unless you looked up his numbers recently, you may be surprised to know he had a .255 ISO and a .340 wOBA with 11 of his 23 home runs against lefties last season. Home runs were an issue for Marco Gonzales ($6,300) on the road last season, allowing 16 of his 23. I can’t imagine Pujols will carry much ownership at all but with power like that, he’s a great value to consider.
Favorite Team To Stack
NYM vs. BOS (Martin Perez) — I’m more than willing to eat the chalk here because I’m having trouble envisioning a scenario where this goes bad for the Mets. Perez should be no where near the Red Sox rotation or any rotation for that matter. The Mets are in a prime spot this evening even though the DraftKings Sportsbook has the tabbed at 4.5 runs. If they don’t go over that total I’d be shocked. Last season against righties, Perez has allowed a .353 wOBA with a 5.13 FIP and 22 of his 23 home runs allowed. Even in this matchup with the lefty on the hill, don’t shy away from guys like Michael Conforto ($4,700) as I expect this to be a quick exit for Perez and thus opening up plenty of good matchups from the bullpen.
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