The NBA is back, and Friday brings us a six-game betting card, spaced out throughout the afternoon and evening. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook on Friday.
To celebrate the return of the NBA, DraftKings is hosting a Millionaire contest that pays out $3 million in total prizes, including $1 million to the winner. In addition $1 million, the winner will also earn a ticket to the Big Game in Tampa in February 2021 to compete for another $1M top prize.
Orlando Magic/Phoenix Suns ML Parlay (-120)
These are easily the two strongest favorites for Friday’s NBA bubble games, which isn’t something we often say about the Magic or Suns. But consider this a fade of the Nets and Wizards. The Nets had four crucial rotation players opt-out, including Spencer Dinwiddie — their best player when Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are out. The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans, which is more than 45 points per game. Washington just doesn’t have the firepower to stay in this game, especially with the Suns returning DeAndre Ayton. Both are seven-point favorites that I could see winning in blowouts.
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks: BOS +5 (-109)
I think we’re getting too many points here with the Celtics, even if Kemba Walker is limited to 18-20 minutes as he works his knee back in shape. Boston will still have all of its bodies, while the Bucks will be without Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, both of whom are still working their way back from coronavirus. The Celtics were spectacular away from home this season, going 20-10-2 ATS, and play very well as underdogs — 13-5-1 ATS. Milwaukee has gone up big to begin both previous meetings this season, but the Celtics wound up winning by 11 in Boston, and losing by five in Milwaukee. Five points on a neutral floor is too many.
Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio Spurs: SAC -3 (-112)
It seems like the Kings should pickup right where they left off prior to the shutdown. They’ll have essentially an identical rotation, which played very well away from home — 21-12 ATS. The Spurs limp into this game without both of their starting bigs in LaMarcus Aldridge and Trey Lyles, while Bryn Forbes has recently been ruled out. Maybe we get some good player prop value on the Spurs, but I’m not expecting much success from this team. The only stronger way to potentially approach this game is by playing the Kings on the first-half line. Sacramento covered eight of its last 10 1H spreads prior to the shutdown, and the Spurs are just 26-37 1H ATS.
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks: OVER 228 (-112)
This one is the highest total on the board, but I’m not backing down. Houston’s maintained its rapid pace in the three scrimmage games leading up to the restart, and Dallas has also looked very good in Orlando. The Mavericks have been a good over bet this season, going 39-28 to the over. These teams have had track meets in both previous meetings this season, scoring 260 and 249, which each team winning a game. This total has been going up all week, and should continue to do so.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.