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It’s not the massive 13-game slate we had last Friday, but man, I’m really digging this nine-game slate set for Monday night. We have a little bit of everything going, some solid pitching options, a game at Coors Field and plenty of hitters to target.
This piece will cover the main slate, so let’s get into all the information. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
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Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lance McCullers Jr, $8,200, HOU (-220) at SF (+180) — I’m not sure if I would be going out betting this moneyline for the Astros because of how inconsistent McCullers has been but I certainly understand the thought behind it. The Giants are simply not doing much on offense and have just a .302 wOBA and a .137 ISO against righties on the year. The problem is, San Francisco batters aren’t striking out much either with just a 22.8 K%, which ranks 19th in the league. McCullers is not missing bats and has just a 9.4% swing-and-miss rate on the season, which at this time is one of the lowest of his career. With the lack of strikeouts already from the Giants. I’ll be a bit wary of this start for McCullers but do believe the Astros should win this game.
Other notable favorites: Kyle Gibson ($8,600; -175) vs. Mariners, Dustin May ($7,700; -159) vs. Padres
Highest Projected Total
ARI (+115, 5.5 runs) vs. COL (-134, 5.5 runs) 11.5 runs — I’m honestly shocked the Rockies aren’t bigger favorites than they currently are going up against Robbie Ray ($6,300). I won’t sugarcoat it: Ray has been positively putrid in three starts. Let’s take a look at the numbers, shall we? Through 13 1⁄3 innings, Ray has allowed 14 runs on 15 hits, including six home runs with a 17:11 K:BB ratio. Diving even deeper, he’s allowed a .444 wOBA, an 8.75 FIP and a 47.4% hard-hit rate. Pitching at Coors Field tonight is not a get-right spot at all. I don’t expect him to be in this game long and even better, the D-Backs’ bullpen has been bad as well, allowing a 5.43 FIP and a 2.15 HR/9. Be prepared for some HEAVY ownership at Coors tonight, but man, what a spot on paper for the Rockies, who have a projected 6.5 team total.
Other notable team totals: White Sox (5.5) vs. Tigers, Rangers (4.5) vs. Mariners
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Weather Concerns
CWS @ DET — Possible delay here as storms roll through after first pitch. This is worth taking a look at later in the evening but as for now, they should get this game started on time.
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Gibson, .344, 4.54
Adrian Houser, .342, 4.32
Steven Matz, .340, 4.77
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Randy Dobnak, .207, 2.65
Patrick Corbin, .237, 1.92
Dallas Keuchel, .252, 3.14
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Logan Webb, .364, 4.34
Robbie Ray, .344, 4.92
Dallas Keuchel, .328, 4.78
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dustin May, .202, 2.44
Adrian Houser, .261, 3.58
Ryan Yarbrough, .264 3.64
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Dustin May, LAD vs. SDP, $7,700 — I’m surprised how cheap May is considering he’s averaging 15.5 DKFP with a 26.3 K% and just a 5.3 BB%. The Padres have been hitting for power against righties thus far and have one of the best ISO against them at .233. It’s important to note, however, a good chunk of that is coming from Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,400) at .476. On the positive side, the Padres have a 24.7 K%, and the last time May faced them, he struck out eight through six innings. The salary is simply too low in this spot.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Trevor Story, COL vs. SDP, $6,100 — Look, I don’t want you to come to this article and see obvious plays to make. Truly, the Rockies are in such an amazing spot tonight that I wouldn’t be truthful if I said I didn’t like Story the most. Robbie Ray, as mentioned early, has been nothing short of a disaster and Story has been doing his thing against lefties already with a .519 wOBA .429 ISO. Story is the play here tonight, even with his ridiculous salary.
Save Big by Drafting
C.J. Cron, DET vs. CWS, $3,100 — Cron is just way too cheap for when he’s facing a lefty, even if that lefty is Dallas Keuchel ($7,800). For Keuchel, he has been great in a White Sox uniform, posting a 2.80 FIP through his first three starts. With that said, Cron had a .310 ISO against lefties with the Twins last season. Through his first 12 games as a Tiger, Cron has already logged seven extra-base hits, four of them being home runs. With him being as cheap as he is, I can’t pass on him here.
Favorite Team To Stack
MIN at MIL (Adrian Houser) — Of course, the Rockies are the team to stack tonight but I wanted to give you another team to consider. Houser on the surface has been fantastic this season, allowing just one run on six hits through 12 innings. However, his FIP currently sits at 4.05, indicating he may be getting quite lucky thus far. Houser has also allowed a 40.7% hard-hit rate, so I feel as if something has to give here soon. Facing a Twins team with a .318 wOBA and a .196 ISO against righties, I’ll take my chances with a team that will certainly go overlooked.
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