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MLB Best Bets: Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for August 11

Julian Edlow gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s MLB card.

MLB Best Bets is off to a solid start after another profitable stretch, going 3-1 for +1.43 units last week. That moves the record for the 2020 season to 14-8-1 for +4.73 units. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s MLB betting card.

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Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $300K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st, TO]


Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays

Moneyline - First 5 Innings: MIA (+145)

Elieser Hernandez will take the mound for the Marlins, coming off a strong start to begin the season — just two hits and no earned runs in 4.1 innings against a middle-of-the-pack Baltimore offense. Hernandez has just a 4.96 career ERA, which makes the matchup against Hyun-Jin Ryu look a bit more lopsided on paper than it really is.

Ryu has a 5.14 ERA through three starts with Toronto. Miami has been the second-most profitable team on the F5 ML in baseball, going 6-2-2, while Toronto is just below average at 4-5-4.

If there’s a matchup Hernandez can carry some momentum into, it’s this one. The Blue Jays rank dead-last in baseball in runs per game at 3.0, and haven’t scored more than three runs in a game since July 30.


Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Indians

Moneyline - First 5 Innings: CHC (-118)

Jon Lester is off to a solid start through his first two outings, pitching five no-hit, scoreless innings against the Reds, and allowing just one run in six innings against the Pirates. Cleveland ranks in the bottom-five in MLB against lefties so far this season, and bottom-three in overall runs per game (3.47).

Adam Plutko will get the start here for Cleveland, with Mike Clevinger getting scratched for violating team rules. Plutko’s been fine this season, allowing two runs in a start against the White Sox, and pitching a clean inning out of the bullpen against the Reds. But he finished 2019 on a bit of a skid, especially in September, when he had a 6.49 ERA. The Cubs rank eighth in MLB averaging 5.0 runs per game, and 6.2 on the road. The Cubs are 9-3-1 on the F5 ML this season, which is where we want to keep things given their bullpen ranks 30th in MLB.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Total Runs - First 5 Innings: UNDER 6.5 (-132)

This probably isn’t the most popular play after we saw 20 runs at Coors Field on Monday night, 15 of which were scored in the first five innings. But Robbie Ray was a dumpster fire we saw coming from a mile away, and Jon Gray isn’t the most reliable of arms, either. This is a completely different matchup, with a couple of solid starters.

Zac Gallen has allowed just five runs in 16.0 innings this season, and while Coors is a factor, he’s put up those numbers against three of baseball’s top six offenses — HOU, LAD and SD. He’s also a strikeout pitcher (21 in 16 IP), so less balls in play helps us with the under here. Gallen faced the Rockies twice last season, allowing just three runs in 10.0 innings, two in four innings at Coors. Kyle Freeland is also off to a spectacular start, giving up five runs in 18.2 innings — three runs in 12.2 innings at Coors. Arizona is one of the worst teams hitting lefties this season, which is something to also factor in.

The Rockies are 13-3 to the F5 under, and F5 unders at Coors were actually 6-0 on the season until the over hit on Monday. The Diamondbacks rank just 25th offensively, and are 6-3-1 to the F5 under on the road.


Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies

Team Totals: BAL OVER 3.5 (-109)

The matchup against Zack Wheeler will scare people away, but that’s why we have such a low total. Wheeler was dealing against the Marlins, but did give up three runs against the Yankees, in an eventual 11-7 loss in seven innings. The Orioles are by no means the Yankees, but their offense is improved, averaging 4.64 runs — a number that jumps to 5.71 on the road.

The Phillies rank 25th in runs allowed, giving up 5.27 per game. Even if Wheeler can have some clean innings to begin the game, Philly’s bullpen ranks 28th in FIP, getting into some extremely high scoring games this season.


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.