Things are getting a little nonsensical in the bubble. With just three days of seeding contests remaining before the playoffs and most teams pretty much locked into their current position, anyone looking to play some NBA DFS definitely has to have laser-focus on all the breaking news. I mean, take a look at what we already know heading into Wednesday’s four-game slate. Houston’s been resting players. Toronto’s been resting players. Oklahoma City has been resting players. Honestly, I think the lone team taking the court this evening that hasn’t been resting its players is Denver and that’s mostly due to the fact the Nuggets have been too beat up to sacrifice healthy bodies.
So, I guess what I’m trying to say is: Make sure you download the DK Live app and follow @DKLive on Twitter to ensure you’re getting all the news updates as their happening. Now that we’ve covered that, let’s dive into this mess.
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James Harden, HOU vs. IND, $11,100 - The consensus seems to be that Harden and Russell Westbrook (rest) are going to alternate appearances during this back-to-back for the Rockets. So, with the latter having logged 27 minutes of action in Tuesday’s loss to San Antonio, we should see the former suit up on Wednesday against Indiana. Now, it’s more than likely that Harden will be limited to a similar role, but he’s proven time and time again that he doesn’t need much opportunity to go off for a huge fantasy performance. In fact, Harden’s averaging 1.77 DKFP per minute in the bubble and 2.07 DKFP per minute specifically in the 204 possessions he’s played without Westbrook. On a slate like this, that’s about as stable a floor as we have.
Other Option: Fred VanVleet ($7,300)
PJ Dozier, DEN vs. LAC, $3,500 - Monday night against the Lakers — a contest where 10 Nuggets logged at least 20 minutes of action — Dozier was the team’s leading scorer with 18 points. It was actually the third time in Orlando that the 23-year-old exceeded 20 minutes in a single game, with Dozier averaging 28.3 DKFP in that trio of high-volume opportunities. I can’t think of a reason for Mike Malone to switch tactics on Wednesday, so feel free to ride with Dozier’s recent success.
Other Option: Austin Rivers ($4,800)
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Josh Richardson, PHI vs. TOR, $5,700 - It’s unclear what exactly the 76ers plan to do on Wednesday with their rotation but here’s what we do know. First and foremost, Ben Simmons (knee) won’t be on the court. Second, Joel Embiid ($9,900) is questionable with an ankle issue and even if he is active I’d expect Philadelphia to be extra careful with the big man’s minutes. On top of that, Richardson was already rested during Tuesday’s loss to the Suns, so I’d anticipate seeing him back out there against the Raptors. The 26-year-old scored 34 points with a 25.2% usage rate the last time he played without Simmons and Embiid. That’s very enticing.
Other Option: Lou Williams ($5,500)
Aaron Holiday, IND at HOU, $4,600 - A fun part about this time of year is trying to decipher who’s important enough on each team to get rested. Which leads us to this question: Is Aaron Holiday important enough to get rested? I’ll say no, especially with so many potential rest candidates on the Pacers’ injury report for Wednesday. We already know T.J. Warren (foot) is out, but Victor Oladipo ($6,000), Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200) and Myles Turner ($6,600) are all questionable, which has generally been bad news the past few days in the NBA. If Holiday is active, there’s a good chance he’s Indiana’s No. 1 scoring option in a high-paced script.
Other Option: Matt Thomas ($3,500)
Kawhi Leonard, LAC at DEN, $9,500 - I know, it seems crazy to suggest utilizing Leonard on a slate where load management is of comical concern. Still, I’ll say this about the reigning NBA Finals MVP: When he’s been active in the bubble, Leonard’s gone all out. In fact, in the forward’s past three contests he’s averaged 31.7 points and well over 37 minutes. There’s certainly a chance that Doc Rivers doesn’t give his franchise cornerstone that long a leash on Wednesday but with the Clippers having not played since Sunday this is somehow one of the safer spots we have.
Other Option: Tobias Harris ($8,000)
Editor’s Note: Robinson (hip) has been ruled out vs. Raptors
Glenn Robinson III, PHI vs. TOR, $4,000 - This could go one of two ways. Option No.1: Robinson, who missed Philadelphia’s first four games in the bubble due to injury, is thrown out there by Brett Brown in a back-to-back situation for conditioning purposes. Option No. 2: Robinson, who missed Philadelphia’s first four games in the bubble due to injury, doesn’t play on a back-to-back because, you know, he literally just got back from an injury. If Robinson is active, he’s a cheap asset coming off a 15-point performance on Tuesday. That’ll play.
Robert Covington, HOU vs. IND, $6,800 - This is a barren position. Anyone not currently injured at the top of the power forward pricing list is a serious risk to be rested on Wednesday and anyone who actually ends up playing probably won’t get anything close to their usual allotment of minutes. Still, Covington’s price tag isn’t insane and he’s registered at least 30.0 DKFP in three straight games. It’s obviously a low bar, but Covington is viable.
Chris Boucher, TOR at PHI, $4,600 - Few men in the NBA are as irrationally confident as Boucher. That’s quite the thing to say about a player that’s only appeared in 89 games but Boucher was truly made for these kinds of slates. Unlike a rookie or a deep bench piece that gets a taste of serious minutes but doesn’t want to do anything to earn the ire of his coach, Boucher wants the ball and he wants to shoot. To his credit, we are talking about someone who was the 2018-19 G League MVP, so it’s almost like he feels right at home in these “preseason-esque” contests. He’s also coming off collecting 25 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks against the Bucks, so the ceiling is clearly there.
Other Option: Bol Bol ($3,400)
Bam Adebayo, MIA at OKC, $7,700 - Technically, Miami is still playing for the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, but it’s not like homecourt advantage is going to mean all that much in a series in the bubble. So, with the East’s playoff matchups set, it’s hard to know how much the Heat will be playing their starters on Wednesday. Still, Adebayo’s averaging a solid 1.25 DKFP per minute since the restart, so if he garners anything close to his normal allotment, he should be able to reach value.
Darius Bazley, OKC vs. MIA, $4,800 - I’d expect at least a couple of the Thunder’s starters to be back for this contest but it’s more than likely Bazley will still see a larger role than he usually would. To be fair, the rookie’s earned a chance to show what he can do. In Oklahoma City’s past two games, Bazley’s averaged 22.5 points and 8.5 rebounds while filling in for the likes of Steven Adams ($6,700) and Danilo Gallinari ($6,200). I’d go back to the well with the 20-year-old on Wednesday.
Other Option: Kyle O’Quinn ($3,000)
Set your DraftKings lineups here: NBA $400K Wednesday Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (TO)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.