Welcome to what should be one of the craziest slates of the year. There are four games to choose from, starting with the Raptors vs. the Nuggets at 1:30 p.m. ET, but none of these teams have anything to play for.
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Kendrick Nunn, MIA @ IND, $5,200 – I’m expecting most teams to be pretty conservative with their rotations today. With that in mind, I’m fine with fading most of the expensive players on the slate.
The Heat are definitely a team worth getting some exposure to. They released an extensive injury report, listing Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, and Bam Adebayo as out and Andre Iguodala, Derrick Jones Jr., and Jae Crowder as questionable. If all of those players are ultimately ruled out, it will leave the Heat with just nine active players.
That could force Nunn into a large workload. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.8% with Butler, Dragic, and Adebayo off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.11 DKFP per minute.
Other Options – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,600)
T.J. McConnell, IND vs. MIA, $4,200 – McConnell is almost always productive when given a chance to play, and it’s been no different in Orlando. He’s averaged 1.18 DKFP per minute during the restart, and he should see a solid handful of minutes for the Pacers today. They’ve already ruled out Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, and Myles Turner, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see more players get ruled out before tip-off.
Other Options – P.J. Dozier ($4,100), Monte Morris ($4,800)
James Harden, HOU vs. PHI, $11,500 – Harden is one of the only true studs I’m actually considering today. The Rockets will be playing without Russell Westbrook, which means Harden should carry an insane workload when he’s on the court. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.6% with Westbrook off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.73 DKFP per minute.
Harden will almost certainly play a reduced workload today, but he could still be the highest scoring player on the slate if he sees 25 minutes. There should be plenty of value options to choose from, so locking in the raw points from Harden will have value even if he doesn’t score his usual 60 fantasy points.
Other Options – Tyler Herro ($5,700)
Furkan Korkmaz, PHI @ HOU, $3,900 – The 76ers are another team that should provide value on today’s slate. Joel Embiid is currently listed as questionable, and it would be a bit surprising to see him suit up after leaving his last game early with an injury. Guys like Tobias Harris, Al Horford, and Josh Richardson could also get the night off.
If that happens, expect Korkmaz to carry a large workload. He’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute in Orlando, so he doesn’t not a ton of playing time to potentially return value.
Other Options – Alec Burks ($5,000), Deonte Burton ($3,000)
Duncan Robinson, MIA @ IND, $5,300 – Robinson is one of the most important role players in the NBA, but that doesn’t always translate to massive fantasy value. That said, he has increased his production to 0.92 DKFP per minute inside the bubble, and he should see a healthy number of minutes for the shorthanded Heat.
Other Options – Tobias Harris ($8,100)
Editor’s Note: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have been ruled out of today’s game vs. the Nuggets.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, TOR vs. DEN, $4,000 – The Raptors have limited the minutes for most of their key role players recently, and that seems unlikely to change in their season finale. Hollis-Jefferson has played at least 24.8 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 23.75 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of some extra playing time.
Other Options – Solomon Hill ($3,800), Doug McDermott ($3,900)
Kelly Olynyk, MIA @ IND, $5,500 – Olynyk has been an awesome fantasy value so far in the bubble. He’s exceeded salary-based scoring expectations in six of his first seven games, and the lone exception was when he was limited to just 18.7 minutes. He could be looking at another limited workload, but the Heat may have no choice but to lean on him a little heavier given their current injury situation.
Other Options – Darius Bazley ($5,400), Jerami Grant ($5,500)
Meyers Leonard, MIA @ IND, $3,300 – If you’re looking to go a little cheaper with the Heat, consider Leonard. He’s been a solid fantasy option this season, averaging 0.85 DraftKings points per minute, and he could approach 30 minutes in this contest.
Other Options – JaKarr Sampson ($3,800), Alize Johnson ($3,500)
Chris Boucher, TOR vs. DEN, $5,300 – Boucher has gotten the chance to play a few additional minutes recently, and he’s taken full advantage. He’s scored at least 39.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, including 52.75 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Bucks. He has been priced up a bit, but he shouldn’t be tough to fit in regardless.
Other Options — Nikola Jokic ($9,400)
Chris Silva, MIA @ IND, $3,500 – Last but not least for the Heat is Silva, who might be the best value of the bunch. He’s averaged a stout 1.27 DKFP per minute this season, so he should undoubtedly see enough playing time to pay off his minimal salary.
Other Options – Jeff Green ($4,900), T.J. Leaf ($3,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.