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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for August 14

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

How about this slate, baby!? A massive 13 games are taking place starting at 7:05 p.m. ET with a boatload of really solid matchups to target and target against. Let’s not waste any time and jump right into this one.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $300K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]


Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Framber Valdez, $8,800, HOU (-210) vs. SEA (+180) — As I write this Friday morning, the Yankees, and more specifically Gerrit Cole, are off the board on DraftKings Sportsbook. I suspect he’ll end up being the biggest favorite on the board but I don’t think I needed to tell you that. Thus, Valdez and the Astros are who we’ll be talking about. Valdez has been fantastic in three starts, allowing just four runs on 16 hits with 19 strikeouts through 17.2 innings. He’s yet to face the Mariners but this is a team who against lefties have a 24.3 K% (8th) to go with a .253 wOBA (28th) and a .109 ISO (27th). Those are some damn good numbers to target against, especially with a pitcher who has a 2.18 FIP on the year. We have a LOT of big names on this slate but don’t let that distract you from that fact that we have some really juicy matchups in the mid-tier salary range.

Other notable favorites: Aaron Civale ($9,300; -195) vs. Tigers, Sonny Gray ($9,600; -195) vs. Pirates

Highest Projected Total

TEX (-127, 6.5 runs) vs. COL (+108, 5.5 runs) 12.5 runs — Ayyyyyy, Coors Field is back tonight! One of the bigger totals we’ve seen here this season features Lance Lynn ($9,000) and Ryan Castellani ($4,600) taking the hill. With the way Lynn has been pitching and only the second start in Castellani’s MLB career, I wasn’t surprised to see the Rangers favored. We don’t have much info on Castellani of course but over the last two seasons in the minors, his command was atrocious, logging a BB% of 11.7% and 13.9% over a combined 177.2 innings. To be fair, the Rangers aren’t crushing the ball against righties with some of the worst numbers in the league with a .269 wOBA and a .104 ISO but they do sport a 10.1 BB%. I’m honestly stumped about how popular Coors will be, seeing as we have 10 (!) pitchers priced at $9K or above this evening. I can’t say I LOVE this game despite it being at Coors but it could truly end up being lower owned than you’d expect. Decisions, decisions.

Other notable team totals: MIN (5.5) vs. KCR, LAD (5.5) vs. LAA


Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.


Weather Concerns

No weather concerns for tonight!


Splits to Start

Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Pablo Lopez, .353 4.73
Jakob Junis, .350 4.36
Tyler Chatwood, .337 3.23

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .258 3.04
Aaron Civale, .258 2.05
Jacob deGrom, .259 3.20


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Yusei Kikuchi, .367, 5.45
Framber Valdez, .338, 4.51
Jakob Junis, .332, 5.47

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .241, 2.24
Gerrit Cole, .242, 2.47
Brandon Woodruff, .249 2.47

Editor’s note: Mets SP Jacob deGrom has been scratched from tonight’s start.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Dinelson Lamet, SDP at ARI, $9,200 — I’m so stoked to play Lamet tonight in a matchup he’s completely dominated in TWICE already this season. With these divisional matchups, Lamet has already tossed 11.2 innings against the D-Backs, allowing two runs on six hits and 19 strikeouts! That’s good for a 44.2 K% and a .207 wOBA allowed. With the way the pricing is for tonight, Lamet is lumped in between Aaron Civale ($9,300), who is in a great matchup against the Tigers and Tyler Chatwood ($9,100), who despite getting roughed up his last time out struck out eight Brewers the last time he faced them. I am all about Lamet in this spot.


Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mookie Betts, LAD at LAA, $5,600 — Betts. Has. Risen.

He’s coming off arguably one of his best games of his career, going a perfect 4-for-4 with three home runs, five RBI and a ridiculous 53 DKFP. Even better, I love his spot against Patrick Sandoval ($6,800), who is making his third start of the year. Through two starts, his 60% hard-hit rate and 4.68 FIP indicates that something is brewing for an offense to take advantage of and the suddenly red hot Dodgers could be that team. Last season with the Red Sox, Betts had a .352 wOBA with a .187 against lefties.


Save Big by Drafting

Jesse Winker, CIN vs. PIT, $3,600 — You may not even realize but Winker has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past week. He quietly (mostly because the Reds are usually off the main slate) has averaged 14.1 DKFP over his last seven games and has four-straight in double-digits. During this hot streak, he’s 11-for-17 with three home runs, two doubles, four RBI and six runs scored. Facing Chad Kuhl ($7,100), who in his last full season in 2018 had a .365 wOBA with a 5.61 FIP against lefties? Yeah, give me all the Winker.


Favorite Team To Stack

HOU vs. SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) — Great spot for the Astros against the lefty Kikuchi. Some of his numbers indicate he’s been pitching a lot better than it seems, as his 2.51 FIP is way off his 5.28 ERA. That’s a red flag off the bat. However, I can’t disregard how good this lineup is against lefties either. Dating back to last season, this team has SEVEN players who posted an ISO of at least .220 against lefties last season. That includes the recently activated Yordan Alverez ($4,300), who is joining the club today. How can you pass this up?

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $300K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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