Monday marks the start of the NBA playoffs, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still look for some MLB betting value. There are 13 games to choose from today, starting with the Yankees vs. the Red Sox at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Here are five of my favorite bets to target on Monday.
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers:
Tigers ML (+125)
It has been a rough start to the season for Matthew Boyd, who has posted a 10.24 ERA over his first four starts. He’ll take the mound today in another difficult spot vs. the White Sox, but Boyd seems like a prime progression candidate moving forward. Opposing batters have managed a .397 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) vs. Boyd this season, which is just bad luck. He pitched to a 4.32 FIP and 3.88 xFIP last season while striking out 11.86 batters per nine innings, so he’s a very talented pitcher.
Gio Gonzalez will get the ball for the White Sox and he has also struggled to begin the season. He’s pitched to a 6.61 ERA and a 6.44 FIP but I don’t see as much room for progression with him as I do with Boyd.
The Tigers’ offense doesn’t have a ton of firepower but is at its best vs. left-handed pitchers. Miguel Cabrera and Jonathan Schoop both posted excellent numbers vs. southpaws last season, so they should be able to get to Gonzalez.
Ultimately, I don’t think the Tigers deserve to be home underdogs in this situation, so I like them at +125.
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies:
Under 10.0 (-113)
This total on this game has been an interesting one early. This line opened up at 9.0, but the sharps appeared to pound it. There were three separate “steam moves” on the over, meaning large groups of wagers coming in at the same time.
That said, it would not shock me if it started to come back toward 9.0 as we get closer to first pitch.
The majority of the money on the total in this game has still come in on the under – 81% to be exact – so it’s very possible that the sharps were just setting up this line with over bets in order to grab the under at a better number.
I’m grabbing the under now before the line has a chance to readjust, particularly since the Rockies have historically struggled to hit on the road. They were dead-last in wRC+ vs. right-handers when playing on the road last season and they only rank 15th in that department in 2020.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets:
Mets ML (-143)
The Mets are another team that the sharps appear to like early. New York has received 49% of the moneyline bets in this game so far but those bets have accounted for a whopping 97% of the money wagered. That has caused the line to rise from -130 to -143 and it will likely get even higher if these betting patterns continue.
The Mets have struggled so far this season but they still figure to be a solid offensive team vs. right-handed pitchers. The Mets have a host of good left-handed bats in their lineup – Dom Smith, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, etc. – and righties like Pete Alonso and J.D. Davis have found success vs. right-handers as well.
New York will be taking on a right-handed pitcher today in Jordan Yamamoto, who has been dreadful to begin the year. He’s pitched to a 9.82 ERA and his 8.59 FIP suggests he hasn’t been all that unlucky.
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals:
Royals ML (+175)
The public is often wary of betting on big underdogs but the Royals are offering some value today.
It starts with Kansas City’s matchup against Matt Wisler, who has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball to start the season. He’s posted a 1.80 ERA through his first 10 innings but his 5.04 FIP is significantly higher. Opponents have managed a BABIP of just .174 against him, which is insanely low. To put that in perspective, batters posted a .341 BABIP vs. Wisler last season. He’s almost guaranteed to see some regression moving forward.
When batters have managed to get on base, Wisler has also posted a perfect 100% strand rate. Those two factors in combination have really deflated his ERA. I’m fine with going against Wisler in this matchup.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox:
Under 10.0 (-105)
This total seems a bit high given the Yankees’ current injury situation. Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton are all on the IL, which leaves the team without arguably its three best hitters. The Bronx Bombers still have plenty of firepower offensively but New York is obviously a lot less imposing without those three batters.
The Red Sox are at full strength but Boston just hasn’t been particularly good offensively. The Red Sox are taking on left-hander Jordan Montgomery and they rank just 17th in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season. Montgomery is a solid pitcher – he posted a FIP of 4.22 or lower over each of his first three seasons – so I’m not expecting a ton of offense from the Red Sox in this contest.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.