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Last night wasn’t great for this article. Zac Gallen was great for us but a disappointing night from the Orioles likely sunk your chances of a good cash. We move onto today where the pitching is much better and evens out the slate. Tuesday brings a huge 11-game slate for us to get into on DraftKings.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
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Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tony Gonsolin, $8,700, LAD (-265) vs. SEA (+215) — The Dodgers are huge favorites once again against the Mariners but you could have been fooled last night after they gave up nine runs. They’re hoping to get better results out of Gonsolin after Ross Stripling forced them into the bullpen early by lasting just three innings. Gonsolin has yet to give up a run in his 8.2 innings pitched, striking out nine and averaging 17 DKFP. The Mariners’ offense continues to be a tough one to figure out, as they continue to hover around league average in most categories. They have a .303 wOBA with a .150 ISO and a 23.4 K%. While I do like some of the other options on this slate, Gonsolin is a fine option, especially at his salary.
Other notable favorites: Yu Darvish ($10,500; -200) vs. Cardinals, Dylan Cease ($8,500; -190) vs. Tigers
Highest Projected Total
PHI (-124, 5.5 runs) vs. BOS (+106, 4.5 runs) 10.5 runs — A big total for two teams that haven’t found a ton of success hitting the over this season. The Red Sox are one of the worst in the league at 8-13-2 on the over while the Phillies sit at 7-8-2. The Phillies are in a great spot against Zack Godley ($5,600), who even fooled me into using him his last time out. Through four appearances, his numbers have bloated to a 6.96 FIP, a 41.2% hard-hit rate and just a 19.7 K%. The Phillies have been good against righties by limiting their strikeouts with just an 18.1 K% and a .326 wOBA with a .176 ISO. With how bad the Red Sox bullpen has been as well, this should be a great spot for the Phillies’ offense at Fenway Park.
Other notable team totals: LAD (5.5) vs. SEA, NYM (5.5) vs. MIA
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Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, .454, 7.26
Dylan Cease, .384, 6.56
Zach Eflin, .373, 6.47
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tony Gonsolin, .237, 3.31
Daniel Ponce de Leon, .265, 3.39
Kenta Maeda, .300, 4.52
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Godley, .361, 6.05
Wade LeBlanc .357, 5.44
Carlos Carrasco, .350, 4.01
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kenta Maeda, .227, 3.15
Tony Gonsolin, .241, 3.71
Yu Darvish, .262 3.37
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Kenta Maeda, MIN vs. MIL, $9,700 — As the Brewers’ offense continues to sputter, they are a team to target against when choosing one of your two pitchers. With just a .279 wOBA, a .134 ISO and the third-highest K% at 28%, this is a great spot for Maeda. He’s already done well against them when he last pitched, throwing 6.2 innings while allowing two runs on five hits with five strikeouts, good for 21.4 DKFP. He’s been throwing some really good games for the Twins, as indicated by his 2.95 FIP and 30.2% hard-hit rate allowed. While he is getting a bit pricey, I think he’s in one of the best matchups on this slate.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Bryce Harper, PHI at BOS, $5,500 — As mentioned earlier, this is a great spot for the Phillies against Godley and the Red Sox bullpen. It seems as if Harper isn’t getting the love he should be for someone that is averaging 12.8 DKFP over his last 10 games, which includes three doubles, a triple, two home runs and seven RBI. Facing Godley, who since last season has a .359 wOBA against lefties, is certainly a matchup I want to target. Harper, along with many of the Phillies’ bats, should be making their way into your lineup.
Save Big by Drafting
Ian Happ, CHC vs. STL, $3,200 — I’m surprised how cheap Happ is considering how well he’s been doing at the plate. At just $3,200, he’s a steal in a potent Cubs lineup. As a switch-hitter, Happ has a .430 wOBA with a .318 ISO against righties this season with three of his four home runs. If he continues to produce as well as he has, I wouldn’t be surprised to start to see this cheap salary creep up. If I were you, I’d take the discount while you can.
Favorite Team To Stack
LAD vs. SEA (vs. Marco Gonzales) — We have a number of teams that we can consider stacking this evening but I’m really liking the Dodgers. Gonzales is giving up a lot of hard contact at 45.7% to go with a 4.58 FIP and a 1.5 HR/9 through 22.2 innings. The Dodgers also have some of the best numbers in the league against lefties with a .338 wOBA and a .217 ISO while striking out just 19.6% of the time. With all this in mind and a projected 5.5 team total, the Dodgers should be one of your top stacks.
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