MLB Best Bets is off to a solid start, following a perfect card last week. Best bets went 4-0 for +4.45 units, improving our record for the 2020 season to 18-8-1 for +9.18 units. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s MLB betting card.
Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks
This is a spot we’ve been on often — a Luke Weaver fade.
Weaver has an 11.85 ERA through four starts and Arizona is 0-3-1 in the F5 of those outings. The D-Backs needed three runs in the fifth at Coors Field just to push the F5 moneyline last week, which I’m chalking up to a fluky situation. In Weaver’s four starts, the Diamondbacks have trailed by a total of 13 runs after five innings. Oakland has been tremendous offensively, particularly on the road, averaging 6.36 runs. The bats will find production early against Weaver.
In terms of keeping Arizona off the board, the A’s have a huge starting pitching advantage with Frankie Montas on the mound. Through four starts, Montas has allowed only four runs in 23.0 innings. He’s been getting even better as the season progresses, allowing just six hits and one run in his last two starts — an 11-1 win over Seattle and 3-1 win over Houston.
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are absolutely atrocious and are worth fading in almost any fashion. However, the Phillies have the worst bullpen in baseball, so we’re keeping this one to the first five innings. Zack Godley began his season with an encouraging bullpen appearance — four scoreless innings against the Mets. Since then, he’s given up 13 runs in 10.1 innings as a starter (11.32 ERA). The Phillies have the fourth-best offense in baseball and average seven runs per game on the road. On top of that, Zach Eflin has been solid this season, with a 3.60 ERA through his first two starts — including four innings against the Yankees without an earned run.
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins
The Twins are one of the top F5 teams in baseball, especially when Kenta Maeda takes the mound. Maeda is 4-0 on the first five moneyline and run line, and he’s gotten insane run support from the Twins. Minnesota has given Maeda 29 total runs of support in just the first five innings of his first four starts. Maeda hasn’t needed them, though, allowing just seven runs in 23.2 innings (2.66 ERA).
I don’t have anything negative to say about Corbin Burnes, who has a 3.38 ERA in four appearances — although Milwaukee has trailed after five innings in his last two starts. But when you compare the offenses, it sways the play. The Twins mash, while the Brewers rank just 26th offensively and dead last when it comes to scoring in the first five innings.
Cross-Sport Los Angeles Moneyline Parlay
The Angels host the Giants at 4:10 p.m. ET, so get to this one early, even with the Lakers tipping against the Blazers late. I want to find a way to back Dylan Bundy in this spot, but run lines and first five inning bets are just too expensive, so I turned to another avenue.
Starting with the Angels, Bundy has been dominant in 2020. Through four starts, Bundy is 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 35 strikeouts. Over his last two starts, Bundy’s allowed one run in 18.0 innings, winning 6-1 and 6-0. He’s on another level right now, and he faces a Giants’ offense that really struggles on the road (3.53 runs per game).
Trevor Cahill has hardly pitched this season, recording five outs in 2020. If we go back to 2019, Cahill finished with a 5.98 ERA in 37 appearances (11 starts). The Angels have been mashing at home, where they average 5.92 runs per game.
Going to the hardwood for a quick second, I’m not buying the Blazers hype in this series. They just used a ton of energy just to get to the playoffs, scraping by teams that were playing for nothing. The Blazers are awful on defense and run into a well-rested Lakers team that’s ready to flip the switch for the postseason.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.