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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for August 19

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Wednesday is filled and I mean FILLED with baseball action to get involved with today on DraftKings. This afternoon has an early three-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET, which is a good way to kick off the day. But this article will focus on the big 11-game slate we have at 7:05 p.m. ET. After a very successful day yesterday with our picks (Kenta Maeda, Bryce Harper, Ian Happ), we take a look below at choices for today.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $300K Gyroball [$100K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Julio Urias, $10,100, LAD (-250) vs. SEA (+215) — I’m really getting tired of these bloated Dodgers lines against the Mariners. They’ve barely beat them in both games this series and yes, while you win your bet, these games have been a lot closer than you’d think. I’m not crazy about Urias being as expensive as he is, as he’s over $10K for the first time this season. The strikeout upside has simply not been there and I would never pay over six figures for a pitcher with a 15.3 K% through four starts. Can I Dodgers win this game? Very likely yes. From a DFS perspective though, Urias, even against a team that has struggled against lefties and has a high 25.5 K%, is not on my radar.

Other notable favorites: Jacob deGrom ($11,800; -225) vs. Marlins, Jesus Luzardo ($8,200; -182) vs. Diamondbacks

Highest Projected Total

HOU (-167, 6.5 runs) vs. COL (+143, 5.5 runs) 12.5 runs — A massive total at Coors Field this evening but I have to put a damper on this a bit. First off, I do like the Rockies as underdogs here and it ties into the total. The Astros have been ravaged by injury lately as they’ve lost Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez and were without George Springer ($5,900), who is dealing with a sore wrist. Jose Altuve ($6,100) is struggling and has been dropped in the order as well. So, this has me leaning toward using Ryan Castellani ($4,900) as a potential GPP play. He’s been great in a small sample so we have to take that with a grain of salt but truly, this is potentially one the weakest Astros lineups we’ll see in quite some time. It’s something to consider, at least. Framber Valdez ($8,300) has been a strikeout machine for the Astros but a lefty in Coors is always tough to trust. Again, he could potentially be another GPP play. I could be totally off on this game but I think this is a situation where we get a surprising under.

Other notable team totals: LAD (5.5) vs. SEA, CLE (5.5) vs. PIT

Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.

Weather Concerns

WAS @ ATL —Chance of rain all throughout the night so he’ll have to keep an eye on this one. If the rain does occur, it could be bad enough to postpone.

Splits to Start

Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Erick Fedde, .357, 5.35
Pablo Lopez, .349, 4.56
Merrill Kelly, .314, 4.27

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Glasnow, .222, 2.03
Gerrit Cole, .258, 3.17
Jacob deGrom, .264, 3.21

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Steven Brault, .346, 5.16
Framber Valdez .336, 4.55
Brett Anderson, .328, 4.71

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .240, 2.38
Jacob deGrom, .241, 2.70
Julio Urias, .250 3.22

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Aaron Civale, CLE vs. PIT, $9.800 —We have a few pitchers I really like on this slate, like Chris Paddack ($7,700) and in large tournament GPPs Ryan Castellani ($4,900), but I’m also digging this spot for Civale. He’ll have the benefit of pitching at PNC Park against a Pirates team with a .247 wOBA, a .114 ISO and a 24.7 K% against righties. Civale has been boasting some strong strikeout strikeout upside thus far, generating an 11% swing-and-miss rate and a 25.7 K%. With some of the big names on this slate, I can easily see him go overlooked and could end up being quite a surprise.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Freddie Freeman, ATL vs. WAS, $5,300 — I will always have Freeman in my player pool when he’s facing a righty at home and tonight is no different. He’ll take on Erick Fedde ($4,400), who last season posted some exceptionally poor numbers against lefties with a .383 wOBA and 6 of 11 HR allowed last season. As for Freeman? He only has a .426 wOBA, a .315 ISO and 20 home runs against righties at home since last season.

Save Big by Drafting

Ketel Marte, ARI at OAK, $3,800 —What a massive drop in salary from Marte, who was just $4,500 on Monday against the A’s. I’m not sure why he’s under $4K so I’m going to go ahead and get him into my lineup without thinking much of it. Tonight he’ll matchup against the lefty Jesus Luzardo ($8,200), who has been a bit shaky in 2020 thus far. The big appeal for me is that since last season, Marte has a .397 wOBA, a .265 ISO and 12 home runs against lefties. Take the discount, smile and move on.

Favorite Team To Stack

CLE vs. PIT (vs. Steven Brault) — Brault will likely see no more than three innings but that should be enough for the Indians to rack up some fantasy points. He’s been extremely shaky with his command all throughout his career and already has walked six batters through seven innings. When he leaves the game early, that won’t be a bad thing either, as the Pirates bullpen is also struggling with their command and giving up some of the most hard contact in the league at 44.8%.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $300K Gyroball [$100K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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