We have 11 baseball games to bet on for tonight’s MLB slate. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Moneyline - NYY (-180)
On paper, this is an excellent starting pitching matchup. New York sends its ace, Gerrit Cole, to the mound as the Rays counter with Tyler Glasnow. Even though the Yankees are dealing with some injuries on offense, I am leaning towards them since Cole is on the mound. Once again, Cole is off to a terrific start. He has a 2.76 ERA and the Yankees have won all five games that he started.
As for Glasnow, I love his stuff and upside as a pitcher. The problem is that he’s having a real issue throwing strikes through his first few starts of the season. Glasnow is walking 5.87 hitters per innings, leading to a 7.04 ERA. The high walk rate is also leading to inflated pitch counts, limiting the ability for Glasnow to work deep into games. He is yet to complete five innings, so I am fading him until he gets his command under control.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals Game 2: Moneyline - CIN (-182)
Even though this game has a bit of added variance since it’s the second leg of a doubleheader and a seven-inning game, I think the line isn’t wide enough. The main reason is because of the difference in starting pitcher quality. Trevor Bauer is a frontrunner to win the National League Cy Young. He’s started the season with a sparkling 0.93 ERA and it looks like he fixed whatever woes he had last season. Bauer has halved his walk rate while striking out nearly 50% of the batters he faces.
The Royals don’t have anywhere near the same quality of starting pitcher on the mound. Matt Harvey is making his 2020 debut. Frankly, I am not sure how he keeps getting chances at the major league level. Sure he used to be great, but those days are way behind him. Last year, Harvey finished with a 7.09 ERA for the Angels as his career is way off the rails due to injuries. His average fastball velocity was a career-low 93.2 mph last year and it stands to reason his velocity will take another step back this year.
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: Moneyline - DET (+135)
I am interested the Tigers as underdogs today since they are pitching one of the top prospects in baseball tonight. Casey Mize, the top overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, makes his MLB debut against the White Sox. Considered a future ace, Mize is widely considered the Tigers’ best prospect and a top-20 or so prospect in all of baseball. After posting strong minor league numbers last year, I think he’s ready to make an immediate impact in the big leagues. At the very least, his upside is worth taking a look at as a plus-money underdog.
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: UNDER 8 TOTAL RUNS (-120)
I always feel like Lance Lynn is a bit overlooked by the betting market. One of the top workhorse pitchers in the league, Lynn has a 1.11 ERA and is among the league leaders in WAR for pitchers. Lynn is coming off of a complete game against the Rockies and is yet to allow more than two runs in a start this season.
The Padres also have a great pitcher on the mound. Chris Paddack is one of the top young arms in baseball and draws a favorable matchup against the Rangers. This is a nice change of pace for Paddack since he’s had to face the Dodgers in two of his last three starts. Against right-handed pitching, the Rangers have a 72 wRC+.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.