Baseball keeps rolling right along and there are another 12 games to choose from on Sunday. The action gets underway with the Detroit Tigers vs. the Cincinnati Reds at 12:10 p.m. ET and continues throughout the afternoon.
Let’s take a look at five of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the games being played Sunday.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves:
Mets F5 ML (-122)
The Mets have been nothing short of a disaster this season. Their bullpen has blown multiple late inning leads, including a 10-4 collapse vs. the Braves on Friday. I want absolutely no part of those guys, which is why I’m focusing on the first five innings only.
The Mets will send David Peterson to the mound, who is coming off an impressive outing in his first MLB start. He allowed just two earned runs over 5.2 innings despite a relatively unlucky .389 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The Braves were mediocre vs. left-handers last season, and they rank just 28th in wRC+ vs. left-handers in 2020.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs:
Pirates ML (+170)
The Pirates aren’t a very good baseball team, but I have no problem backing them as +170 underdogs in this spot. They’re taking on Jon Lester, who is not the same pitcher that he was in his prime. He pitched five shutout innings in his first start this season, but his advanced metrics suggest he was extremely lucky. He didn’t allow a single base hit on a ball in play in that contest, which is obviously unsustainable. Overall, he posted a 7.85 xFIP in that contest, so I’m expecting some regression moving forward.
The Pirates aren’t sending a much better option to the mound in Steven Brault – he pitched to a 5.16 ERA in 2019 – but this matchup is much closer than the odds indicate.
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies:
Under 13.0 (EV)
Coors Field is a hotbed for offense, but this line has been set extremely high. History suggests it might be too high: Unders on Coors Field totals between 12 and 14 runs have gone 50-31-2 ATS over the past four seasons (61.7%). That means a $100 bettor would be up more than $1,700 if they just blindly bet the under in this situation.
What makes things even better is that the Padres will be sending a solid right-handed pitcher to the mound in Zach Davies. He’s pitched to sub-4.00 ERA in four of his five MLB seasons, and he posted a 1.09 FIP in his first start of 2020.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks:
Diamondbacks ML (+165)
My fellow DraftKings’ contributor Steve Buchanan likes to tease me about my love for Clayton Kershaw. Maybe that will change after picking against him today vs. the Diamondbacks.
Kershaw is clearly one of the best pitchers of his generation, but he’s definitely on the decline. His 3.03 ERA in 2019 was very good, but it was still his worst mark since his rookie season.
Kershaw is also someone who has historically been much better at home than on the road. If you’re going to fade Kershaw, Arizona seems like a pretty good place to do it. It is a much more hitter-friendly venue than Dodger Stadium, and Kershaw pitched to a 7.36 ERA over two starts at Chase Field in 2019.
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins:
Indians ML (+105)
The Indians failed to come through for me yesterday, but they will have a massive pitching advantage in today’s contest. They will be sending Aaron Civale to the mound, who has been impressive in limited MLB action. He posted a 2.34 ERA over 57.2 innings in 2019, and he allowed just two earned runs over six innings in his first start this season.
The Twins will be pitching Homer Bailey, who posted a 4.57 ERA in 2019. That actually represented a big improvement from his mark in 2018, when he struggled to a 6.09 ERA. He posted a 5.29 FIP in his first start of 2020, and I’m not expecting better results moving forward.
Editors Note: Homer Bailey’s start has been pushed to Monday. Tyler Clippard will open for the Twins.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.