After getting absolutely embarrassed by the Clippers on Saturday, the Pelicans will return to action on Monday in what be the most important seeding matchup we’ve seen in the bubble so far. New Orleans taking on Memphis will headline a five-game featured slate on DraftKings, one that locks just after 4:00 p.m. ET. However, that’s far from the only interesting contest, as the Lakers will also be looking to secure the Western Conference’s top spot against the Jazz.
Let’s break it all down position-by-position.
Jrue Holiday, NO vs. MEM, $8,700 - This is kind of the perfect storm when it comes to a bubble matchup. Only seven of the NBA’s 30 teams have averaged at least 103.0 possessions per 48 minutes this season and two of them will square off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Monday. On top of that, with both New Orleans and Memphis beginning 0-2 in the restart, you get the feeling that we could see some desperate and tight rotations in this one. That should mean a huge role in an uptempo script for Holiday, who’s logged more minutes than any other Pelican so far in Orlando.
Other Option: Ja Morant ($7,300)
Aaron Holiday, IND at WAS, $5,000 - I swear, we’ll explore a second family’s basketball talents soon enough. While his teammate T.J. Warren ($7,400) understandably stole the headlines in Indiana’s 127-121 victory over Philadelphia on Saturday, Holiday filled into the starting lineup quite nicely for Malcolm Brogdon (neck), finishing the contest with 15 points, 10 assists and 37.75 DKFP. With Brogdon currently listed as questionable to play against Washington - and Victor Oladipo (rest) doubtful - there should be just as much opportunity for Holiday to thrive on Monday’s slate; especially opposed by a Wizards team that’s surrendered 121.5 opponent points per game in the bubble.
Other Option: Mike Conley ($5,500)
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC vs. DEN, $6,000 - If this feels like a bargain of a price tag for Gilgeous-Alexander’s services, it’s because it is. In fact, this represents the second-cheapest salary the Canadian has had in 2019-20 and the lowest price he’s been since all the way back in mid-November. That should make it pretty easy for Gilgeous-Alexander to reach 5x value on Monday, as he’s exceeded at least 35.0 DKFP in 17 of his last 26 contests. That includes a 36.5 DKFP showing against the Jazz on Saturday.
Jordan Clarkson, UTA vs. LAL, $4,900 - Clarkson couldn’t make a shot to save his life in Utah’s 110-94 loss against Oklahoma City; but, at the same time, this play is more about process than results. It’s clear through two games that the veteran guard has inherited some of Bojan Bogdanovic’s (wrist) scoring responsibilities and that’s resulted in a massive and team-leading 30.6% usage rate. That’s not a number you’ll often see attached to an asset below $5K.
Other Option: JJ Redick ($3,700)
T.J. Warren, IND at WAS, $7,400 - This is obviously going to be a popular spot for Warren, but I’m just having a hard time figuring out how he doesn’t take 25 shots in this game. Warren’s 29 field goal attempts versus the 76ers were more than double any other player on the Pacers’ roster with the next closest total being Oladipo’s 14, and, as I already mentioned, he’s probably not going to take the court on Monday. In the 559 possessions Warren’s logged without Oladipo, Brogdon or Domantas Sabonis (foot) this season, he’s posted a team-best 28.3% usage rate. Add in a terrible Wizards defense and I can’t resist.
Other Option: LeBron James ($10,700)
Troy Brown, WAS vs. IND, $5,200 - I wouldn’t always be expecting a near triple-double like Brown almost pulled off on Sunday against the Nets, but it’s clear through two games in the bubble that Brown is one of the Wizards’ main scoring threats. The sophomore racked up 22 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists in that 118-110 loss, all while logging a team-high 38 minutes of action. Yes, the results are going to be inconsistent when investing in any part of a roster this barren, but Brown’s a fair price on a fast-paced squad. It’s a nice place to start.
Other Option: Lonnie Walker ($4,400)
Anthony Davis, LAL at UTA, $9,800 - Davis has spent the past 36 hours getting hounded by the media for his passivity in Los Angeles’ Saturday night loss to Toronto. I get the feeling he’s going to be aggressive in this one. It’s not the easiest matchup in the world and Davis hasn’t exactly thrived versus Utah in 2019-20, but I’ll take my chances with the generational talent at a price tag below $10K. If he hits his ceiling, he can single-handedly alter a slate.
Other Option: Brandon Ingram ($8,100)
Michael Porter Jr., DEN at OKC, $4,500 - I’m curious to see where Porter’s ownership lands after an underwhelming showing against the Heat. For me, it’s crucial to note that one of the main reasons the Missouri product was held to just 25 minutes of action in a contest where the Nuggets desperately needed bodies was foul trouble. If he can compose himself and stay on the court, we’re talking about a man that’s averaged 1.10 DKFP per minute played in 2019-20 - the second-highest rate on Denver’s roster.
Joel Embiid, PHI vs. SA, $10,300 - I just don’t know how San Antonio plans on stopping Embiid in the paint. The Spurs have been content to play small with the likes of DeMar DeRozan ($8,200) and Rudy Gay ($5,800) splitting minutes at the four-spot, yet that doesn’t seem like a plausible way to succeed versus the 76ers. I mean, we literally just saw Embiid grab nine offensive rebounds and 21 boards overall against a Pacers team missing the aforementioned Sabonis. He also scored 41 points in that contest. He does those kinds of things.
Other Options: Nikola Jokic ($9,400), Thomas Bryant ($6,300)
Steven Adams, OKC vs. DEN, $5,400 - In an age of small-ball lineups, there are a few teams you can count on to stay big. One of those squads is the Nuggets, who might not even have enough guards to get creative with lineups even if they wanted to. Anyway, that lack of flexibility should mean a large role in Monday’s matchup for Adams. In the veteran’s two prior meetings against Denver this season, Adams has averaged 18.5 points, 15.5 rebounds and 48.6 DKFP. That’s a more than decent track record.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.