We’ve been spoiled with these huge slates this week and while today isn’t one of those, the main DraftKings slate is a very solid eight-game offering starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Clayton Kerhsaw, $10,200, LAD (-250) vs. SEA (+220) — Man, I’ll tell you, I’m getting real sick and tired of writing up the Dodgers as these massive favorites over the Mariners. They’ve hardly been able to contain them as they’ve won by two runs and one run in the first two games and then lost last night. The Mariners have very much been in these games and giving the Dodgers a run for their money. Tonight, they’ll have to deal with Kershaw, who has struck out exactly six in all three starts while averaging 21.3 DKFP. This will be the third road start for Kershaw and he sports a .140 wOBA with a 2.75 FIP through 12.2 innings. The advantage Kershaw has here is that the Mariners are truly one of the worst offensive teams against lefties thus far, with a .257 wOBA, a .104 ISO and a 26.2 K%, the fifth highest in the league. While I haven’t been on some of the Dodgers pitchers thus far, I do like Kershaw in this spot.
Other notable favorites: Shane Bieber($10,600; -245) vs. Pirates, Dinelson Lamet ($8,500; -200) vs. Rangers
Highest Projected Total
ARI (+135, 3.5 runs) vs. OAK (-162, 4.5 runs) 9 runs — This slate does not have many high totals, as this game is the only one projected at nine. All the other games on the board were around 8 as of Thursday morning. Alex Young ($6,700) is in a potential danger spot here against the Athletics, who have a good offense against lefties. Despite sporting the highest K% in the league against them at 29.1%, they have a .317 wOBA with a .183 ISO. Despite displaying some very strong command, I’m not loving the numbers for Young with his 5.36 FIP and a 46.3% hard-hit rate allowed. He could be considered a GPP play because as mentioned, the A’s do strikeout the most against lefties and Young does have a 25.4 K% on the year but aside from that, this looks to be a bad spot for the D-Backs starter.
Other notable team totals: LAD (5.5) vs. SEA, CLE (4.5) vs. PIT
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No weather concerns for tonight!
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Nathan Eovaldi, .371, 6.49
Trevor Williams, .369, 5.22
Asher Wojciechowski, .358, 6.31
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Alex Young, .263, 4.46
Sonny Gray, .268, 3.59
Clayton Kershaw, .268, 3.67
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Suarez, ..432, 8.03
Nathan Eovaldi .374, 4.69
Yusei Kikuchi, .367, 5.45
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Brandon Woodruff, .247, 2.46
Sonny Gray, .256, 3.02
Shane Bieber, .272 3.04
Pitcher to Build Around
Shane Bieber, CLE vs. PIT, $10,600 —I honestly don’t care if this is the obvious play or the chalk play, you don’t get better than Bieber right now. The man sports a ridiculous 43 K% on the season through four starts and now faces a Pirates offense that has a 24.4 K% against righties. Bieber has struck out at least eight batters in each of his four starts while generating a 19.8% swing-and-miss rate. For reference, that’s almost unheard of. Granted, it’s a much larger sample size but last season when Gerrit Cole ended with a K% of 40, he had a 16.8% swing-and-miss rate to end the season. Bieber is the play tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Jose Ramirez, CLE at PIT, $5,300 — Ramirez, along with most of the Indians’ offense, looks as if it’s finally coming around. Over his last five games, Ramirez is averaging 16.2 DKFP with a home run, two doubles, five RBI and four stolen bases. Tonight he’ll matchup against Trevor Williams ($5,600), who since 2019 against lefties has a .369 wOBA, a 5.22 FIP and a 1.4 HR/9. This is looking like a good spot overall for the Indians, who tagged the Pirates for six runs in both games of the series thus far, so Ramirez is at the top of my list.
Save Big by Drafting
Mark Canha, OAK vs. ARI, $3,700 — As mentioned, this is looking like a tough spot for Young and the Diamondbacks against the A’s. If you’re looking for some value, I really like Canha in this spot, who always boasts some really good power numbers against lefties. Since last season, Canha has a .234 ISO with a .360 wOBA against lefties. Young has had early issues with home runs already, allowing four through just 14 innings. With numbers like that, Canha could end up as a very strong value on this slate.
Favorite Team To Stack
CLE vs. PIT (vs. Trevor Williams) — It’s the Indians for a second straight night in their matchup against Williams. As we saw last night, the Pirates’ bullpen is nothing to fear by any means, as they were the ones to blow five shutout innings from Steven Brault. All six runs came off this bullpen, pushing their overall numbers to a 4.09 FIP with a 4.88 BB/9 and a 41% hard-hit rate. Even before we get to that point, the struggles that Williams can endure, especially with home runs, should make this another good spot to stack the Indians.
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