The NBA is back in full swing and Thursday brings us a four-game betting card, spaced out throughout the afternoon and evening, along with some interesting futures angles to consider mid-series. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook on Thursday.
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks: MIL 1Q -4.5 (-113)
This is a situational spot where I think it’s safe to assume Milwaukee comes out to prove a point, but the numbers also back it up. The Bucks have been pretty awful in the bubble, yet to see them in anything close to a must-win spot is unexpected. They need to come out and take confidence away from Orlando early in this one, down 0-1 in the series.
The Bucks have gotten off to slow starts in the bubble, which just isn’t how they play. Milwaukee was the second-best 1Q ATS team during the regular season, going 40-25. The Magic have been slightly below average out of the gates, going 4-5 1Q ATS in the bubble, but were the fourth-worst team during the regular season, finishing 25-38-2 1Q ATS.
In the four regular season meetings, the Bucks won all four first quarters by 33 total points — 8.25 per game. I think this is a spot Milwaukee needs to gain early momentum.
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks: UNDER 227.5
This total seems high for this matchup, especially after five matchups this season. The total went over this number in Game 1, 122-110, but I don’t expect Orlando to put up another 122, with the Bucks adjusting defensively. All four regular season matchups stayed well under this number, and those totals were set between 214-221.5, finishing 3-0-1 to the under. If the Bucks have a similar offensive output, it’ll come down to them getting the stops they need, and couldn’t put together in Game 1. I could see a 112-102 type of game here.
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Series Winner Parlay: LAL/LAC (-117)
It’s not often I’ll bet something for -220, but the Lakers are winning this series against the Blazers. I don’t mind betting it at that number as it’s own bet, but I want to find a way to get the juice to a reasonable number. One way is to add the Clippers, who are 1-1 with the Mavericks after Wednesday’s loss. The Clippers are 20-3 off a loss this season, and I fully expect them to bounce-back on Friday and take control of their series. The Lakers had a historically unfortunate shooting night in Game 1, particularly shooting 15% from 3. Portland’s defense has been downright brutal in the bubble, so I’m expecting an outburst in this game, with the Lakers coming out on top and steadying the ship.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James to have a triple-double — YES (+175)
LeBron almost seemed passive in Game 1, yet still posted a 23-17-16 triple-double. The 16 assists were the most impressive part, because as mentioned, his teammates weren’t even hitting shots like we’re accustomed to. During the regular season, LeBron averaged just two rebounds shy of a triple-double, and against the Blazers, he averages just 0.2 rebounds shy of it. I think LeBron steps his game up in Game 2, and we see a similar performance with even more points. The assist number should dip, but with his teammates picking up from downtown, he’ll get there. This should be much closer to even odds.
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