Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver. Note: fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.
1. Chase Elliott ($10,000) - Time to jump on board. Elliott is a streaky driver. He won at Dover in 2018 on a hot streak that started at a road course. His Dover setups were much better in the low downforce package. (4.3 fppk)
2. Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,000) - In the high downforce package at Dover, Truex was great. In the low downforce package at Dover, Truex was great. This is one of his many home tracks. (4.2 fppk)
3. Kevin Harvick ($11,400) - Last year, Harvick finished 4th in both Dover races, but only led one lap. That might not mean much with NASCAR returning to the 2018 low downforce package. In 2018 at Dover, Harvick won the spring race and scored over 50 fast lap and laps led points. (5.5 fppk)
4. Denny Hamlin ($10,200) - The best stat doesn’t exist. DFS players can lean on 2018 low downforce package stats. The 2019 Dover stats are risky because of the different package. The 2020 Bristol race is a decent point of reference. Hamlin led the most laps in that race. (5.0 fppk)
5. Brad Keselowski ($9,700) - In the 2018 spring Dover race and 2018 spring Bristol race, Keselowski was one of the top hogs. Although his finishes were not great, he had a fast setup in the low downforce car at the high banked concrete tracks. (4.9 fppk)
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6. Kyle Busch ($10,600) - One of the oddest stats in NASCAR is Kyle Busch’s Dover spring race stats. Over the last six spring Dover races, Busch’s average finish is 28th. In the fall races, he averages a 5th-place finish. Is Saturday spring and Sunday fall? (2.8 fppk)
7. Joey Logano ($9,400) - The 2020 low downforce races have been good for Logano. He won at Phoenix and earned a top-5 at Martinsville and New Hampshire. He was on his way to a win at Bristol before Chase Elliott wrecked him during the final laps. (3.6 fppk)
8. Jimmie Johnson ($8,000) - The legacy of Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson have been destroyed by NASCAR. These drivers were not allowed to slow fade away. They were thrown in a ditch. These legends drove overpowered stock cars, and NASCAR took that away from them, and their careers ended. There will be more horsepower this week, and Dover is Johnson’s greatest track, but it’s not like it used to be. (3.9 fppk)
9. Erik Jones ($9,200) - In the fall of 2018, Jones finished 4th at Dover and 5th at Bristol. On one hand, he was good in the low downforce package. On the other hand, he was better in the second race. Jones might be a better play on Sunday. (3.9 fppk)
10. Kurt Busch ($8,300) - This has been a good points season for Kurt Busch, but he does not have the speed to win. He’ll likely earn another top-10 this weekend, but he’ll continue to be irrelevant in fantasy, if he only scores finishing position points. (4.1 fppk)
11. Christopher Bell ($7,600) - We’ve seen this movie before. Bell is great at the shorter race tracks and his recent experience in a low downforce package in the Xfinity Series prepares him for this race. He looks great until he hits the wall and DNFs. (3.8 fppk)
12. Ryan Blaney ($11,800) - Bristol and Dover are often compared even though Dover tends to drive a little more like an intermediate track than a short track. If the comparisons are true, then Blaney’s 2018 speed at Bristol should have carried over into the Dover races. It did not. (4.3 fppk)
13. Clint Bowyer ($7,800) - He loves low downforce and shorter tracks. Bowyer recorded the third-most fast laps and laps led in the 2018 spring Dover races. In the Bristol race that followed, Bowyer finished 2nd and scored the most fantasy points. (3.8 fppk)
14. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,400) - The Wood Brothers are setting up fast low downforce cars this season. DiBenedetto has two top-10 finishes and a 13th place in three of the four races. He looked good at Bristol until he got caught in one of the many wrecks. (3.9 fppk)
15. Alex Bowman ($8,500) - In the high downforce package, Bowman was great at Dover. He was one of just a few drivers that could pass. In the spring race, he drove from the back to the lead. That excellence will be thrown out this weekend. His successful setup is worthless in a different racing package. (3.3 fppk)
16. Austin Dillon ($8,700) - He missed last week’s race, so he’ll start near the back. His price might take him out of the optimal lineup, but he seems pretty safe in cash. Dillon hasn’t consistently been a top-10 driver at Dover, but he can be, and if he is, then he’ll likely be optimal. (4.4 fppk)
17. William Byron ($8,200) - Crew Chief Chad Knaus built a race winning setup at Dover eleven times. His last win was at Dover in a 2017 low downforce car. Byron hasn’t been great at Dover or Bristol, but NASCAR is a guessing game. Setups are based on the best notes, and no one has better notes than Knaus. (3.6 fppk)
18. Ryan Newman ($6,800) - By now, everyone has memorized his current form stats. Newman finishes around 15th every week. The only number worth looking up is his track history, but his average finish at any given track is never a surprise. His average finish at Dover is 14.6. Looking up Newman stats is a waste of time. The number is always 15. (3.4 fppk)
19. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,200) - Other than the plate tracks, the high banked concrete tracks have been a strong suit for Stenhouse. In true Stenhouse form, he’s wrecked in three of the last 10 Dover races, but by his own standards that doesn’t seem that bad. In the seven clean races, his average finish is 13th. (2.9 fppk)
20. Tyler Reddick ($7,100) - Anytime the Cup series travels to the one mile or shorter tracks, the rookies have to be on the radar of DFS players. Reddick has driven a low downforce car at Dover for the last two seasons. The results weren’t great, which is a common theme for Reddick at non-intermediate tracks, but it’s fair to believe that Reddick isn’t at too much of a disadvantage this week. (5.3 fppk)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.