Saturday features a 10-game slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. We do have a couple of games to watch in terms of weather with Miami-Washington the biggest threat followed by Philadelphia-Atlanta. As always, this article will give plays as if we don’t have any weather concerns, so make sure to check before first pitch.
As for the rest of this slate, we have some really enticing matchups to target and we’ll talk all about that below. As always, feel free to throw me a follow on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Zac Gallen, ARI at SF, $9,600 - Gallen isn’t getting the credit that he deserves for how good he has been this season. He has thrown 30 innings allowing just eight runs on 23 hits with 36 strikeouts, averaging 20.9 DKFP in that span. He has struck out at least six in each of his five starts and now faces a rather weak Giants offense. The downside here is that the Giants haven’t been overly generous with strikeouts for opposing pitchers with just a 21.8 K% against righties. However, the .306 wOBA and .144 ISO makes this matchup one I want to target. I would say overall, this slate doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside pitchers to begin with unless you’re feeling froggy and want Matthew Boyd ($8,000).
Other Option: Dustin May ($9,100)
Justus Sheffield, SEA vs. TEX, $6,500 - At first glance, I didn’t think Sheffield would be a play on this slate but as I dug into it, he caught my eye. I know the Rangers’ offense has been struggling but didn’t realize that against lefties they have just a .288 wOBA with a .162 ISO and a 26.8 K%, which is the sixth-highest in the league. The 2.41 FIP of Sheffield compared to his 4.12 ERA also indicates he’s been quite unlucky to this point, so given how cheap he is this is a great value spot.
Other Option: Triston McKenzie ($5,400)
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J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL, $5,200 - All I needed to know was Realmuto was facing a lefty and that was enough for me. Since last season, Realmuto posted a .368 wOBA with a .262 ISO against lefties and has kept up the pace so far this year. He’ll be taking on Robbie Erlin ($5,900), who looked like an ace against the Marlins in his last start but had allowed four runs on four hits, three of which were home runs, against the Phillies prior to that.
Other Option: Pedro Severino ($4,700)
Travis d’Arnaud, ATL vs PHI, $3,500 - I don’t understand why d’Arnaud continues to be so cheap but he makes for a great play while he is. The ownership is going to be here, as most people have caught onto the fact that he’s averaging 10.5 DKFP over his past 10 games, which includes three home runs, three doubles and 10 RBI. On paper, the matchup isn’t the best against Zack Wheeler ($10,300) but the Braves are a VERY good hitting club against righties.
EDITOR’S NOTE: d’Arnaud is not in the lineup for today’s game vs. the Phillies.
Other Option: Victor Caratini ($3,000)
Paul Goldschmidt, STL vs. CIN, $5,000 - Wade Miley ($6,400) is making his first start since Aug. 12 after landing on the IL with an undisclosed injury. It has been a putrid start for him on the Reds, lasting a total of 3 1⁄3 innings in two starts while allowing seven runs (six earned) on six hits. This is a great spot for Goldy, who had a .395 wOBA and a .298 ISO against lefties last season. First base is quite stacked for this evening, so I wouldn’t anticipate him being overly popular either.
Other Option: Mitch Moreland ($4,800)
Carlos Santana, CLE vs. DET, $4,400 - As I mentioned, first base is stacked and completely worth paying up at. While $4,400 may not be considered a “value” I don’t see the need to go much lower in salary. Santana has a great matchup against Matthew Boyd ($8,000), who continues to be rocked each and every start. He’s already allowed eight home runs in five starts and against righties has allowed a .478 wOBA with a 7.90 FIP.
Other Option: Renato Núñez ($4,300)
Hanser Alberto, BAL vs. BOS, $4,800 - Alberto doesn’t provide you with a ton of pop but, my word, he is an on-base machine against lefties. Since the beginning of 2019, he has a .411 OBP to go with a .402 wOBA. His ISO isn’t anything great at .146 but truly this guy just does it against lefties. He’s a bit pricey for someone who doesn’t have a ton of pop but I’ll admit, I always worry when I fade him in this matchup.
Mike Moustakas ($5,100)
Scott Kingery, PHI at ATL, $2,900 - Looking at Kingery in 2020 certainly doesn’t look very enticing. I mean the guy has played 17 games and has seven hits to his credit. But, if you’re looking to punt second base, I’ll take my chance with a player at $2,900. Last season against lefties, he amassed a .357 wOBA with a .268 ISO. We’ve yet to see him produce like that this season but anything we get out of him at this salary is welcome.
Other Option: Jurickson Profar ($3,300)
Rafael Devers, BOS at BAL, $5,300 - Devers is finally breaking out of his early-season slump and has been mashing the ball lately, averaging 9.8 DKFP over his past 10 and 14.4 DKFP over his past five. Tonight, he’ll face off against Alex Cobb ($7,800), who has allowed a home run in four of his five starts to go with a 4.69 FIP and a 42.7% hard-hit rate. Third base is another position where you can go a number of different ways but I really like to ride the hot hand with Devers here.
Other Option: José Ramírez ($5,400)
Kyle Seager, SEA vs. TEX, $3,300 - Seager is quite cheap for someone that has been quite productive at the plate for the Mariners. He’ll see Jordan Lyles ($7,400), who has been putrid against lefties and enter this game with a .374 wOBA, a 5.85 FIP and 14 home runs allowed since last season. With how cheap Seager is and his .375 wOBA and a .214 ISO against righties thus far, this could be a great low-owned value play.
Other Option: Hunter Dozier ($3,200)
Tim Anderson, CWS at CHC $5,100 - This is actually a tough matchup for Anderson, but it’s hard to ignore a hitter who is averaging 16.1 DKFP over his past 10 games. Anderson has been a machine at the plate, blasting five home runs and two doubles with eight RBI over that span. Kyle Hendricks ($8,800) does a very good job at keeping the ball in the yard, so that’s a concern. Truly, if you’re paying up at this position, why not go with arguably one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now?
Other Option: Francisco Lindor ($5,300)
Nick Ahmed, ARI at SF, $3,700 - Ahmed is starting to creep up in salary so he’s losing his appeal a bit. However, he’s a great target specifically when going against lefties. Overall, his 10 DKFP average over his past 10 games is the reason he’s gone from as low as $2,800 to his current salary of $3,700. Luckily for us, he’s in a matchup that since last season he has a .368 wOBA and a .235 ISO in.
Other Option: Freddy Galvis ($3,100)
Nick Castellanos, CIN at STL, $5,100 - Who doesn’t love Castellanos facing a lefty, aside from the opposing pitcher? Thus far this season, Castellanos has posted a massive .304 ISO to go with a .333 wOBA against lefties. If you go back and look at his numbers from 2019, he has a .460 wOBA with a .343 ISO. With numbers like that, it’s hard to not like him against Kwang Hyun Kim ($5,600)
Other Options: Mookie Betts ($6,200), Max Kepler ($4,600)
Domingo Santana, CLE vs. DET, $3,100 - If you want to go way down the board, Santana is a sneaky source of power against lefties. It hasn’t come to fruition thus far this season, but last year he posted an impressive .238 ISO and a .345 wOBA against them. Santana hasn’t made much of an impact thus far this season, but in a lineup that should be able to handle Matthew Boyd, Santana is a good way to mix up your stack at very low ownership.
Other Options: Victor Reyes ($3,100), Tyler O’Neill ($3,500)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.