We’re already down to 14 teams remaining in the bubble and another might be on their way home before things are all said and done on Monday. The Heat have an opportunity to become the third Eastern Conference team to sweep a series in 2019-20, as they’ll take on a Pacers squad that currently finds themselves down 3-0.
Will the fact that Indiana has its back up against the wall impact the fantasy implications of that game? Let’s break down that matchup and everything else you need to know from a DFS perspective.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND vs. MIA, $7,500 - Though the Heat have done an admirable job shutting down opposing point guards for the entirety of 2019-20, Brogdon’s simply carrying too much volume to ignore in this series. The former Rookie of the Year is coming off a 68.75 DKFP performance on Saturday, which stems from the fact that Brogdon leads all Eastern Conference players in touches per game since the beginning of the playoffs (99.3). He also happens to lead the Pacers in minutes (119) and DKFP scored per minute (1.26), which is pretty much the dream combination at a mid-tier price point.
Other Option: Chris Paul ($8,000)
D.J. Augustin, ORL vs. MIL, $4,600 - Honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if we find out prior to tip in this game that Augustin is moving back into the Magic’s starting lineup. Aside from Nikola Vucevic ($9,100), Augustin has easily been Orlando’s most consistent player in this series, while Markelle Fultz ($4,700) has progressively gotten worse with each passing start against Milwaukee. Augustin’s 24.5% usage rate in second on his team in the playoffs and he’s scored at least 34.0 DKFP in three of his past four games overall.
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Eric Gordon, HOU at OKC, $6,000 - This is a possible play that relies heavily on normalization. To be perfectly blunt, Gordon has shot the ball atrociously through three games against the Thunder. As in, he’s only 4-for-26 (15.4%) from 3-point range. However, despite those struggles, the veteran has still managed to exceed 30.0 DKFP in all three contests thanks primarily to a notable 28.9% usage rate. Gordon’s a career 37.0% 3-pointer shooter and he registered a 40.0% rate in last season’s playoffs. He’s bound to hit a few open looks from distance eventually and, when he does, he’ll hit his relatively lofty ceiling.
Other Option: Dennis Schroder ($6,200)
Terrence Ross, ORL vs. MIL, $4,900 - I can understand not wanting to get too much exposure to an Orlando offense that has looked stagnant at times the past week, but we pretty much know the book on Ross. The former lottery pick is a hired gun off the bench. As soon as he checks into the game, he’s going to be shooting and he’s looked decent so far in the playoffs, averaging 16.7 points per contest. Magic-Bucks has also been the highest-paced series in 2019-20, clocking in at 105.0 possessions per 48 minutes through three matchups.
LeBron James, LAL at POR, $10,800 - Even when factoring in his dud performance in a Game 2 blowout, it’s clear that Portland has no answer for James. The All-Star has produced an eye-popping 1.67 DKFP per minute in this series and, in the two contests where he logged at least 30 minutes of action, he’s averaged 70.9 DKFP. Plus, you’re kind of getting James at a discount considering he’s only the fourth-most expensive player on this slate. You just need the Blazers can hang around long enough to keep James on the court.
Other Option: Jimmy Butler ($8,100)
Carmelo Anthony, POR vs. LAL, $5,800 - We’re probably not getting another four-steal performance from Anthony in these playoffs, but the veteran’s role has been pretty set-in-stone since the NBA began play in the bubble. Anthony plays a ton of minutes and he’s a secondary scoring option. That first part is key. The 36-year-old is averaging 35.4 minutes per game in the playoffs and that doesn’t include Anthony logging 37 minutes in a must-win seeding matchup with Brooklyn and 38 minutes in the play-in tournament against Memphis. Portland just doesn’t have anyone else to turn to on the wing.
Other Option: Duncan Robinson ($5,100)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at ORL, $11,100 - It’s still a little frustrating that Antetokounmpo isn’t seeing over 35 minutes per game in the playoffs, but we all know that the Greek Freak doesn’t need much time to produce. In fact, thanks to a 38.1% usage rate, Antetokounmpo is putting up 1.96 DKFP per minute played against the Magic — an almost unheard of level of efficiency. There’s a reason this guy is about to become a back-to-back league MVP, right?
Other Option: T.J. Warren ($7,800)
Danuel House, HOU at OKC, $5,000 - Since an underwhelming Game 1 performance, House has registered back-to-back 30.0 DKFP showings. What’s the main cause of this recent success? Well, if I had to point to one particular thing, it would probably be that the forward has logged 80 minutes of work in the Rockets’ past two contests, grabbing 19 rebounds in the process. With Russell Westbrook out, Houston has a microscopic rotation. That’s always going to benefit assets like House.
Bam Adebayo, MIA at IND, $7,600 - Adebayo isn’t always the most aggressive player when it comes to hunting his own shot, but it’s not like the big man isn’t involved in Miami’s offensive game plan. In fact, since the beginning of the playoffs, no player in the league is averaging more touches at the elbow per game than Adebayo (9.7). At the end of the day, this is simply a modest price point to grab an asset that’s eclipsed the 40.0 DKFP mark in two of his three games against Indiana.
Other Option: Anthony Davis ($10,500)
Jeff Green, HOU at OKC, $5,400 - The argument for Green’s viability is almost identical to the aforementioned House. Funny enough, Green’s actually averaged more minutes so far in this series against Oklahoma City than James Harden ($11,700). Wrap your head around that for a second. Green’s 11-for-22 from 3-point range through three games and he’s managed to chip in with a few timely rebounds. How could you ask for more from a guy barely priced over $5K?
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.