Monday brings what could be a very difficult slate for hitters. We have a very strong group of pitchers taking the hill, which could make finding a lineup full of hitters we feel confident in difficult. Let’s dive into this slate and see what we can come up with!
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Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jack Flaherty, $9,300, STL (-195) vs. KCR (+160) — This is a potential danger spot. Flaherty only tossed 1 2⁄3 innings against the Cubs, as the Cardinals are working him back with such an inconsistent schedule due to COVID-19. Thus, in total, he’s tossed 8 2⁄3 innings between July 24 and Aug 19. I can’t imagine he’s going very deep in this one either with just 41 pitches thrown in his last start. Thus, I wouldn’t be all that interested in using him in DFS or betting a premium on the Cardinals. As the fourth most expensive pitcher on the slate, I simply don’t see the need to use Flaherty in this spot and think your salary is better allocated elsewhere.
Other notable favorites: Framber Valdez ($7,600; -162) vs. Angels, Merrill Kelly ($8,700; -162) vs. Rockies
Highest Projected Total
CHC (-136, 5.5 runs) vs. DET (+115, 4.5 runs) 9.5 runs — So Casey Mize ($6,200) makes one start and now the books are already off him. The Cubs boast a 5.5 total for tonight even after a decent showing from Mize, who allowed three runs on seven hits through 4 1⁄3 innings against the White Sox. The Cubs will certainly help him get that strikeout total up with the league’s second-highest K% against righties at 28.6% but they also have a .330 wOBA and a .196 ISO to go with it. I’m not positive I want to specifically target against Mize but the Tigers’ bullpen has been very generous. In all, I would have some exposure to this game with so many tough pitching options to combat but this is not nearly my favorite.
Other notable team totals: CIN (4.5) vs. MIL, STL (4.5) vs. KCR
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No weather concerns for tonight!
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Alec Mills, .365, 5.36
Patrick Sandoval, .358, 6.31
Trevor Bauer, .329, 5.11
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jesus Luzardo, .215, 1.71
Jack Flaherty, .262, 4.06
Aaron Civale, .264, 2.50
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Framber Valdez, .325, 4.32
Brett Anderson, .324, 4.58
Patrick Sandoval, .314, 4.55
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kenta Maeda, .219, 3.05
Alec Mills, .240, 3.67
Jack Flaherty, .246 2.87
Pitcher to Build Around
Trevor Bauer, CIN vs. MIL, $10,200 — I get it. Bauer is going to be the super chalk but truly, he’s in one of the best spots on this slate. The Brewers have the third-highest K% in the league against righties at 27.6 K%, putting Bauer in a very good spot. His 43.6 K% and 13.2% swing-and-miss rate puts him in a matchup with elite strikeout upside, making Bauer a very tough fade for me despite his ownership. If you did want to get away from the ownership, I think Jesus Luzardo ($7,400) is also in a great spot against Rangers.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Yuli Gurriel, HOU vs. LAA, $5,100 — I love the Astros in this spot tonight against the Angels and Patrick Sandoval ($6,400). Despite dealing with a number of injuries, the Astros are still a very dangerous team against lefties. Gurriel is often a forgotten man when it comes to thinking of Astros hitters against lefties but he comes into this game with a .499 wOBA and a .414 ISO with three of his five home runs thus far. If you’re stacking the Astros tonight, Gurriel should be in that mix.
Save Big by Drafting
Matt Davidson, CIN at MIL, $3,000 —Davidson should get the start for the Reds with the lefty Anderson on the mound. He’s been a total lefty slayer for them, posting a ridiculous .544 wOBA with a .588 ISO and all three of his home runs. He’s always a candidate to be pinch hit for later in the game but if he can blast one off of Anderson or knock in a couple of runs, it’d be well worth the $3K salary you have to drop for him.
Favorite Team To Stack
HOU vs. LAA (vs. Patrick Sandoval) — As mentioned, this is a great spot for the Astros overall against Sandoval. Even with the injuries, the Astros are dealing with, George Springer ($5,000), Gurriel, Jose Altuve ($5,100) have all posted strong numbers against lefties. This slate is going to be a very tough one for stacks and hitters overall, so taking one of the better matchups as a stack to build around is warranted.
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