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DraftKings DFS Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: 2020 PGA TOUR BMW Championship

Geoff Ulrich gets you set for the BMW Championship with winning trends and his picks for your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups.

The Cheat Sheet provides fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their DraftKings roster selections.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: PGA TOUR $1.75M Penultimate Push [$500K to 1st]


The Field

Editor’s note: Webb Simpson has withdrawn from the BMW Championship.

This week, the field has been pared down again, as only the top-70 players in the FedExCup Playoffs have advanced. Notable players who WILL NOT be playing this week include Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose and Jordan Spieth. They all finished outside the top-70 after last week’s event. After the BMW Championship is complete, the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings will be allowed to tee it up one more time next week at East Lake for the TOUR Championship and a chance at some serious cash. As of now the top five in the FedExCup standings are: Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa. The seeding going into the last leg of the playoffs is very important given the new structure of the event where top players start at better scores than those beneath them. Expect to see a lot of jockeying for position on the weekend in what is always a fun and exciting final round.


The Course

Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)—Olympia Fields, Illinois

Par 70, 7,333 yards, Greens: Bentgrass

Olympia Fields will host its first PGA TOUR event since the 2003 U.S. Open this week. The midwestern venue has seen action on the PGA TOUR prior to that at the now defunct Western Open and has also been the host of numerous amateur events, including the seasonal Illini Open and the 2015 US Amateur. Winning scores at the collegiate stroke-play event have typically been in the mid-to-high single digits range, so don’t expect anyone to shoot 59 again this week.

The venue was designed back in 1922 by Willie Park Jr. and will play as a longer Par 70 this week. The course is set out in suburbs of Chicago in Olympia Fields and features a sprawling, tree-lined layout that should challenge players with tough tee shots that will require some precision just to hit the fairways. Back in 2003, the field here averaged just 54% driving accuracy, which was a full 10% lower than the PGA TOUR average in that stat for the season. Greens in regulation also came at a premium here as the field that week averaged just 59%, down about 5% from the PGA TOUR average. Hitting greens will likely be crucial as getting up and down at Olympia was not easy in 2003 either, as the field scrambled at just 48% for the week.

The course features just two par-5’s, one of which is the 624-yard first-hole. There’s also a couple longer par-3’s on the venue, including the par 3-eighth, which played as the 17th hole in 2003 and measured in at 247 yards for the week. The venue also features at least five par-4’s that will measure in over 450-yards in length, including the par-4-18th, which could play over 500 yards and present players with an extremely difficult finishing hole.

Hitting a ton of fairways will be key, but this venue will be a true all-around test with great around-the-green skills needed at some point too. Expect higher scores this week and players who have trended well at tougher venues in the last few months to potentially do well here.

2020 Outlook: The weather this week looks it will be good to great for the most part. Wind will be a slight factor at some point and is scheduled to get up past 10 mph on each of the first two afternoons. The gusts won’t be huge, though, and the course isn’t overly exposed, so don’t expect any big wave differentials, especially given the small 70-man field. The temperatures will be quite warm, starting off with highs in the high-80s to low-90s for the first couple of days. This could firm up the greens a bit and make the course play tougher than it already does. Players with great around-the-green games could prosper this week as a result.


Last Five winners

**This year will be the first time this event is played at Olympia Fields.

2019—Justin Thomas -25 (over Patrick Cantlay -22)

2018—Keegan Bradley -20 (over Justin Rose playoff)

2017—Marc Leishman -23 (over Rickie Fowler -18)

2016—Dustin Johnson -22 (over Paul Casey -19)

2015—Jason Day -22 (over Daniel Berger -16)


Winning Trends

- The past eight winners of the BMW Championship have all had at least one top-12 finish in their last four starts on the PGA TOUR.

- None of the past 10 winners of the BMW Championship had missed the cut in their previous start on the PGA TOUR.


Winner’s Statistics and Course Notes

Jim Furyk (2003 US Open-Olympia Fields)

**no strokes gained data available

Driving Distance: 25th (295 yards)

Total Driving: 3rd

Driving Accuracy: 2nd (69%)

Greens in Regulation: 12th (70.5%)

Scrambling: 16th (58%)

· The course played as the sixth-toughest venue on the PGA TOUR in 2003, yielding a 72.381 (Par 70) scoring average.

· The Greens in regulation percentages and fairways hit statistics in 2003 were far below average for the week.

· From an off-the-tee perspective, neither of the top two finishers in 2003 ranked inside the top 20 in driving distance for the week, although plenty of bigger hitters finished inside the top 10 and the top 20.


Finding Values

Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful of putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.

Tyrrell Hatton $8,300 and +3500 outright

Comparable

Harris English $8,300 and +4500

Kevin Kisner $8,400 and +5000

Hideki Matsuyama $8,500 +4500

Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,900 and +5500 outright

Comparable

Louis Oosthuizen $8,000 and +9000

Matthew Wolff $8,200 and +5500

Alex Noren $7,900 and +7000

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


Recent Form

1. Dustin Johnson ($11,500, Recent finishes: win-T2): Johnson won in dominant fashion last week, blasting the field by a ridiculous 11-strokes. Prior to that he had finished tied for second at the PGA Championship, so the new World No. 1 is clearly firing on all cylinders. He’ll be a tough man to beat as the playoffs progress.

2. Scottie Scheffler ($9,000, Recent finishes: T4-T4): Scheffler continued his run of excellent form last week, posting a 59 in Round 2 at TPC Boston en route to a T4 finish. Scheffler also posted a top-5 at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. He’ll go looking for his first PGA TOUR win this week against a stacked field.

3. Daniel Berger ($9,700, Recent finishes: 3rd-T13-T2): Berger’s 2020 season has been superb. He’s collected seven top-10 finishes now over his last 10 starts, including a T3 from last week. He looks ready to make a big playoff push in the coming weeks as well.

4. Harris English ($8,300, Recent finishes: 2nd-T23): English has had a huge turnaround in 2020. The two-time PGA TOUR winner lost his card at the end of 2019 but has gotten himself up to No. 6 in the FedExCup standings. He finished T19 at the PGA Championship and solo second last week.

5. Kevin Kisner ($8,400, Recent finishes: T4-T3): Kisner has stepped on the gas over the last month. The veteran has collected three top-5 finishes in his last six starts, including a T4 at the first playoff event. One more good finish here and he’ll be one of the top seeds at East Lake for the playoff finale.


DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY

Cash Games: It’s likely not a week to get super fancy here. Dustin Johnson ($11,500) is the most expensive golfer in the field but has opened up a gap on the rest of the big guns of late in terms of form. He’s not that hard to fit in this week either as the limited/elite field event has pushed plenty of big names into more affordable ranges. Both Tony Finau ($8,700-see below) and Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500) make for good targets here and should benefit from a tougher golf course this week where their elite tee-to-green games will be more relevant. Further down you have the likes of Russell Henley ($7,800) and Brendan Steele ($6,600) who are both affordable and playing very solid golf right now. Neither is likely to challenge for the win, but solid tee-to-green games should keep them inside the top-half of the field this week.

Tournaments: There were plenty of big names that missed the cut last week and none disappointed more than Bryson DeChambeau ($10,600). The big hitter could not get going at all with his irons or putter at TPC Boston, posting two rounds of even par. He did win the US Amateur at Olympia Fields in 2015, however, and his power game is likely to play much better at this longer course. He should be lower owned in GPPs as he was massively outplayed by all three players above him in salary last week at TPC Boston. Paul Casey ($8,100) likely also fits the mold of a player who could bounce back quickly here. He finished T2 at the tougher Harding Park two weeks ago and has been one of the most consistent players in off the tee stats in recent months. Other big-field GPP targets here include Cameron Champ ($7,500-see below), Jason Kokrak ($7,500) and Danny Lee ($6,300).


MY PICK: Tony Finau ($8,700)

The 30-year-old Finau had a poor finish to his first playoff event, missing the cut by a couple strokes. While the FedExCup playoffs have often been about backing players with that dreaded m-word (momentum), there’s good reason to think that Finau should be in for a quick bounce back in this week’s second playoff event. Most of Finau’s woes from last week came on the greens, where he lost an impressive -3.8 strokes through two rounds. Ball-striking wise, he gained over +2.7 strokes on approaches and off the tee in round two alone and gave himself an opportunity to go much lower than the round of 69 he produced last Friday. Finau has also been great at bouncing back from slow starts of late, producing a T4 finish recently at the PGA Championship after posting one of his worst results of the year, a T65 in a 78-man field at WGC Memphis. The longer, tougher, setup of Olympia Fields should play more into his hands, though, and Finau’s best results have almost always come when scoring is at a premium. He ranks first in Par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards and eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green stats over the last 50 rounds, so even a little more sharpness around and on the greens here could produce a big week and pay off his very manageable $8.7K salary.


MY SLEEPER: Cameron Champ ($7,500)

Champ also missed the cut last week at TPC Boston but seems like a player who should find the surroundings at Olympia Fields more to his liking. The big hitter is just two events removed from a T10 finish at the PGA Championship where he gained an obscene +6.3 strokes off the tee. Champ also fell victim to a cold putter last week (he lost -2.8 strokes on the greens in his two rounds) but also put together a solid round on Friday that should give him more confidence going into next week. The now two-time winner on the PGA TOUR did putt well on the Bentgrass/Poa greens in San Francisco two weeks ago and could find the similar surfaces at Olympia Fields this week more to his liking. Champ has some experience playing this week’s venue in competition too as he won a collegiate event there in 2016, besting the field that week by four strokes. Much like TPC Harding Park, his strong off-the-tee game should play well on the hard to fairways and longer Par 4’s at Olympia Fields. At $7.5K, his upside in this week’s limited field event makes him a ripe target in the mid-$7K range on DraftKings.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: PGA TOUR $1.75M Penultimate Push [$500K to 1st]


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