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We’re down to just two games on Tuesday’s NBA slate, but they’re pretty juicy Western Conference matchups dripping with drama. The first game tips off at 6:30 p.m. ET when the Jazz look to close out the Nuggets in Game 5 of their series. The real showcase, though, is the 9 p.m. ET matchup between the Clippers and the Mavericks, whose series is tied at two after a truly legendary game from a banged-up but undaunted Luka Doncic in Game 4.
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Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets: Game Result
The Jazz have dominated this series since dropping the opening game in overtime. Donovan Mitchell was outstanding even in that Game 1 loss and carried his team to a Game 3 win with 51 points on Sunday. He has received good help from Mike Conley since the veteran returned to the bubble for the past two games, and Rudy Gobert has had an impact on both ends of the floor. Denver is still short-handed even though Gary Harris (hip) is questionable after missing all Denver’s games in the bubble. Even if he returns, stopping Mitchell will be a big ask in his first game back. Jamal Murray went off for 50 points last game, and it still wasn’t enough for the Nuggets. Hopefully, we get another close, fun game like Game 4, but ultimately, the Nuggets just don’t have answers for Mitchell, who will look to close out the series with a fourth straight win.
Choice: Utah Jazz
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers: Game Result
This series has been one of the best in the playoffs to this point with superstar performances from Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and Lou Williams. The Clippers have still gotten next to nothing from Paul George and have lost their lead in the series as a result. One of the key factors to monitor leading up to game time in this one is the status of Kristaps Porzingis, who was a last-minute scratch for Game 4 due to knee soreness and is listed as questionable for this contest. His return would be huge for the Mavs, who relied on Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. to step up as support options for Luka Doncic on Sunday. Doncic did most of the heavy lifting himself despite playing through a sprained ankle, producing 43 points, 17 rebounds and 13 assists, highlighted by his game-winning three-pointer in overtime. The Clippers were up big and let Game 4 get away, so they’ll need to come out with better focus and intensity for Game 5. Kawhi Leonard did a good job when he was defending Doncic, and I think we’ll see even more of that in Game 5. The Clippers are still the deeper team and have the defense needed to advance even though they let the last game slip due to the dominance of Doncic.
Choice: Los Angeles Clippers
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Donovan Mitchell Points
Mitchell had 57 points in Game 1 and 51 points in Game 4, going way over the 30.5 where this over/under is set. However, he did have the under in the other two games in the series with 30 points in Game 2 and 20 points in Game 3. In those games, Utah was up big and cruised to a win, which I don’t expect to be the case in this contest since Denver will be facing elimination with a loss. Since I think this will be close, Mitchell should go over.
Choice: Over 30.5
Nikola Jokic Points
Jokic has been very consistent in the series and has 28 or 29 points in three of the four contests with 15 being the only outlier in Game 3. While I do think Denver will keep this close, the fact that Jokic hasn’t been over this number by more than 0.5 points this series makes the under the way to go here. I think Jamal Murray will have another big game and take some of the load off of Jokic, who I think will end up just under this number.
Choice: Under 28.5
Luka Doncic Points
Doncic was limited to under 30 minutes in Game 2 and Game 3 when he had under 30 points, but posted 42 and 43 points in his two games with typical minutes. He looked unstoppable in Game 4 despite his ankle injury, and I’m not picking against him after that performance. The one caution here is that I do think the Clippers will go with Kawhi on him much more often in this game which could turn him into a facilitator instead of a scorer. I still think he hits the over, though.
Choice: Over 30.5
Kawhi Leonard Points
Leonard has gotten no help from Paul George to this point in the series and has had to step up his scoring as a result. He has scored at least 29 points in all four games even though his shooting percentage has been somewhat inconsistent. While he may be the answer to who can best defend Doncic, I don’t think the Mavs have anyone who can slow him down on the other end. We’re definitely getting “Playoff Kawhi” mode, which should result in another big game for the postseason star.
Choice: Over 29.5
Who will have more Points, Rebounds, and Assists on 8/24?
Three top duos are the options in this prop with Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert for the Jazz taking on Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic from the Nuggets while Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the third option from the late game. Since PG13 has been pretty awful, I think it’s a better option to go with a pair from the first game. The Jazz have a little more depth with Conley back in the mix, while the Nuggets still rely very heavily on Jokic and Murray. In their last game, the Denver duo would have won this prop 110 to 91. Even if they lose the game, the Nuggets should still be able to get good production from these two players, and I think ultimately they take down this prop.
Choice: Jamal Murray/Nikola Jokic
Will Luka Doncic record a triple-double?
Normally these one-player triple-double props are a no from me, but Luka has been so dialed in it’s hard to pick against him. He had 13 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds in just 29 minutes in Game 3 due to sustaining that ankle injury. He came back with 43 points, 17 rebounds and 13 assists in Game 4 and had a triple-double by the third quarter. If Porzingis returns, Doncic will be able to share the load more, but this seems more likely than not even in that scenario. If Porzingis is out, that makes this even more likely.
Choice: Yes
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