We have two aces taking the mound in different games tonight with Shane Bieber ($10,800) facing the Twins and Gerrit Cole ($10,600) facing the Braves on the road in an interleague matchup. Let’s get into this DraftKings slate and figure out how we’re going to attack this one.
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Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lucas Giolito, $9,700, CWS (-250) vs. PIT (+210) — Giolito and the White Sox are massive favorites tonight as they host the Pirates in Chicago. Giolito has been nothing short of excellent and is coming off a 43.4 DKFP performance against the Tigers in which he struck out 13 while allowing no runs on three hits through seven innings. The Pirates are downright putrid against righties, sporting a .260 wOBA (30th), a .118 ISO (30th) and a 24.5 K% (11th). What makes this even more of an enticing sport for him is with Cole and Bieber both more expensive, Giolito could end up being lower owned than you think, as people are paying up for them over Giolito.
Other notable favorites: Adam Wainwright ($8,400; -215) vs. Royals, Chris Paddack ($7,800; -190) vs. Mariners
Highest Projected Total
LAD (-195, 5.5 runs) vs. SF (+170, 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — As of Tuesday morning, none of these games have a total in double-digits, but we do have a 9.5 total in San Francisco. The Dodgers own a 5.5 team total against Johnny Cueto ($6,100), who has a 4.00 FIP through six starts. The Dodgers’ offense has been pouring on the runs as of late, averaging five runs over their last five games. Cueto has faced the Dodgers twice already, allowing five runs on seven hits with six strikeouts through 9.2 innings. Until this offense cools off, they’re essentially in play each and every night. Getting into the bullpen early would also be huge, as they’ve been one of the worst in the league with a 5.82 FIP, a 1.9 HR/9, both of which are the highest in the league and an 18.2 K%, which is the lowest in the league.
Other notable team totals: CWS (5.5) vs. PIT, STL (5.5) vs. KCR
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NYY @ ATL - We could see some pop ups during the game which has the potential to cause a disruption. This is worth keeping an eye regardless if you’re in on this game or not, as it could shift ownership away from Cole to others if it looks like an issue.
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Harvey, .401, 6.67
Adam Wainwright, .349, 5.61
Kyle Gibson, .373, 4.53
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .261, 3.20
Lucas Giolito, .262, 3.48
Shane Bieber, .267, 3.16
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Harvey, .347, 6.50
Steven Brault, .338, 5.02
Kyle Gibson, .330, 4.16
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .240, 2.41
Brandon Woodruff, .253, 2.46
Julio Urias, .257 3.14
Pitcher to Build Around
Lucas Giolito, CWS vs. PIT, $9,700 — People are going to flock to Bieber and Cole and that’s totally fine. If that means I’m getting Giolito at low ownership, however, sign me up. As mentioned, the Pirates’ offensive numbers are downright brutal against righties and Giolito has been on point almost all season long. While his 11.3 BB% could be worked on, his 3.22 FIP, 31.7 K% and a 14.4% swing-and-miss rate all have me ready to take the dive.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Jose Abreu, CWS vs. PIT, $5,000 — Sticking with that game, have you noticed what Abreu has been doing at the plate lately? It’s honestly not even fair. Over the course of his last 10 games, he’s 17-for-38 at the plate with eight home runs, three doubles and 16 (!) RBI. All that combined, gives him a ridiculous 17.3 DKFP average. Now, he has a matchup against the lefty Steven Brault ($5,900), who has shown some shaky command thus far with a 15% BB%. His numbers for the most part are good but he’s not going deep into games and the Pirates’ bullpen behind him has been an issue with a 4.40 FIP. Oh, did I mention Abreu has a .379 wOBA and a .286 ISO against lefties thus far?
Save Big by Drafting
Matt Carpenter, STL vs. KC, $3,600 — Matt Harvey ($5,300) is making his second start of the season after tossing three innings against the Reds. In that game he allowed three runs on four hits, two of which were home runs and four strikeouts. Harvey and his struggles against lefties are not a secret, so grabbing Carpenter at a cheap salary could be worth your while. While he hasn’t shown a ton of pop thus far, batting cleanup in this lineup certainly isn’t a bad thing. Since last season, Harvey has a .401 wOBA and a 6.67 FIP against lefties, both of which are the worst marks on this slate.
Favorite Team To Stack
CHC vs. DET (vs. Spencer Turnbull) — The problem with Turnbull is that he can’t shake off his command issues. Through 24.2 innings, he’s posted a 14.1 BB% only a 19.8 K%. The Cubs are one of the most patient teams in the league against righties with an 11.1 BB%, which ranks fifth-best in the league. If they can wait him out, they’ll have a number of opportunities to knock in runs. Then, they’ll be able to dive into the Tigers’ bullpen, which hasn’t exactly been a strong point for them either.
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