MLB Best Bets is off to a solid start, despite going just 1-3 last week for -2.3 units. The losing week dropped our record for the 2020 season to 19-11-1 for +6.88 units. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s MLB betting card.
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Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
TOR ML (-132)
The Red Sox are overpriced once again, giving us an opportunity to fade them in an unfavorable matchup. Chase Anderson gets the start for the Jays and he has been solid thus far through three starts, allowing three earned runs in 9.2 innings, including allowing just one run in three innings against this Boston lineup. Anderson hasn’t been lasting long in his starts, but he’s backed by the fourth-ranked bullpen in baseball, with a 3.15 ERA.
Kyle Hart strung together a decent outing his last time out, allowing two runs in 3.2 innings to the Phillies. Congrats bro! That lowered your ERA all the way down to 11.12! Hart just isn’t an MLB level pitcher and a short leash here won’t help, as Boston’s bullpen is the second-worst in MLB with a 5.75 ERA. Toronto also has a massive edge on offense, as the top home scoring team in MLB at 6.71 runs per game. The Red Sox are scoring just 4.13 runs per game on the road.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Lead After 5 Innings: CLE (-135)
I’ve caught the Bieber fever, guys. Shane Bieber has been dominant in his first six starts of the season, allowing just five runs in 40.2 innings. He has a 1.11 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP and has struck out 65 in those outings. Four of his six starts he’s exited the game with the opponent scoreless, including an eventual 2-0 victory over the Twins. Bieber went eight innings in that one, allowing three hits and no walks while punching out 13. As talented as Minnesota’s lineup is, I’ll back Bieber against anyone at the moment.
That means Cleveland will have to get on the scoreboard against Rich Hill, who has only made two appearances this season. Hill lasted just 2.2 innings last week, giving up four runs to the Brewers, who rank in the bottom-five in runs per game. Cleveland’s bats seem to have woken up some, scoring at least five runs in six of its last 10 contests.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox
CWS -1.5 (-118)
This one’s just way too large a mismatch in all aspects to pass up on the full game run line. Lucas Giolito has been hit or miss so far this season, but has been beating up on lesser offenses, as evidenced by a shutout of the Tigers, who rank slightly above the Pirates. Pittsburgh has been a bottom-five team hitting righties the last 14 days, while the White Sox are the top-team hitting lefties the last 14 days.
Steven Brault is essentially a bullpen arm getting the start here. He’s backed by the sixth-worst bullpen in baseball, with a 5.48 ERA. Giolito is backed by the eighth-ranked bullpen, owning a 3.68 ERA. A top-10 offense versus a bottom-10 offense with this kind of pitching discrepancy warrants the full game run line play. Of the Chicago’s 17 wins, 15 have come by more than one run.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.