Saturday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. The game between the A’s and the Astros that was initially scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET will not count, so make sure to avoid those players in your lineup!
Let’s break down some of the top offensive stacking options on today’s slate.
It’s important to note that you should always keep an eye on the news and lineup notes from @DKLive in order to best prepare for each slate. In addition, feel free to get at me on Twitter with any questions — @MattLaMarca.
1. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies and Padres are squaring off at Coors Field tonight and both offenses are definitely in play. The Astros have the slightly higher implied team total but the Rockies might represent the better pure value. Their offense has a bunch of cheap projected starters for a Coors Field matchup.
Colorado is taking on left-hander Adrian Morejon ($6,200), which means the Rockies’ lineup should be chock-full of right-handed batters. Morejon has pitched to a 5.79 ERA over 4 2⁄3 innings this season and he pitched to a 10.13 ERA in limited playing time in 2019.
The Rockies have two guys who absolutely destroy left-handed pitchers in Trevor Story ($5,700) and Nolan Arenado ($5,500) and both players are definitely in play today.
That said, Garrett Hampson ($4,000) and Matt Kemp ($2,900) stand out as the best pure values. They’re expected to occupy premium spots in the lineup – Hampson batting first, Kemp batting fifth – and both guys will have the splits advantage against Morejon.
Players to Consider
Trevor Story ($5,700)
Nolan Arenado ($5,500)
Garrett Hampson ($4,000)
Brendan Rodgers ($3,100)
Matt Kemp ($2,900)
Josh Fuentes ($2,000)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Brendan Rodgers is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Padres.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Padres SP Adrian Morejon has been placed on the injured list and SP/RP Michel Baez will start in his place tonight vs. the Rockies.
2. Boston Red Sox
Tonight’s game between the Red Sox and Nationals should be full of offense. The Red Sox are currently implied for 5.7 runs and the combined total of 11.5 ranks second on the slate. The Red Sox are taking on Nationals right-hander Anibal Sánchez ($7,100), who has been a disaster through his first five starts this season. He has pitched to a 6.48 ERA and his 5.95 FIP suggests he hasn’t really been unlucky either.
He’s been particularly poor against left-handed batters, allowing them to post a .443 wOBA. Left-handers have also hit plenty of long balls vs. Sanchez this season, averaging 2.45 HRs per nine innings.
Boston’s lineup isn’t loaded with left-handed batters but the Red Sox do have one of the best in the business. Rafael Devers ($4,900) smashed against right-handers last season, posting a .413 wOBA and 153 wRC+. His Statcast data from last season was also excellent vs. right-handers given his 43.0% hard-hit rate and 98.1 mile per hour average exit velocity.
Mitch Moreland ($4,900) is another left-handed batter who crushes right-handers. He posted a .371 expected wOBA vs. right-handers in 2019.
Players to Consider
J.D. Martinez ($5,600)
Xander Bogaerts ($5,000)
Rafael Devers ($4,900)
Mitch Moreland ($4,900)
Alex Verdugo ($4,600)
Jackie Bradley Jr. ($3,100)
3. Washington Nationals
On the other side of the previous matchup, the Nationals will likely be the preferred target for most people. Washington’s implied team total of 5.9 runs is the top non-Coors mark on the slate and the Nationals have an elite matchup vs. right-hander Chris Mazza ($5,000). Mazza pitched to a 5.51 ERA over 16 1⁄3 innings in 2019 and he’s followed that up with a 6.35 ERA through his first 5 2⁄3 innings in 2020. That’s his only experience at the MLB level as a 30-year-old, so he doesn’t exactly seem to have a bright future moving forward.
The Nationals’ offense is led by Juan Soto ($5,700), who continues to get better as a hitter. He has posted a 226 wRC+ this season, which is one of the top marks in the league. He has also clubbed nine HRs over just 89 plate appearances and has cut his strikeout rate from last season nearly in half. He’ll have the splits advantage vs. Mazza, so he’s obviously in play.
Trea Turner ($5,400) was also at his best vs. right-handed pitchers last season, posting a 120 wRC+. Turner is also a threat to do some damage on the basepaths in addition to the batter’s box, logging at least 35 steals in each of his past three seasons.
Players to Consider
Juan Soto ($5,700)
Trea Turner ($5,400)
Asdrubal Cabrera ($4,600)
Howie Kendrick ($3,800)
Eric Thames ($3,700)
Adam Eaton ($3,400)
4. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers’ implied team total of 5.3 runs is slightly lower than the totals for the Red Sox and Nationals, but Milwaukee’s bats are not nearly as expensive. That makes the Brewers a strong target if you’re looking to pay up for an expensive pitcher or two.
They’re taking on Pirates right-hander JT Brubaker ($5,700), who has been solid but unspectacular this season. He has pitched to a 4.80 ERA over his first 15.0 innings and left-handed batters, in particular, have fared well against him. That doesn’t bode well for his success vs. the Brewers.
The Brewers’ offense starts with Christian Yelich ($5,100), who absolutely destroyed right-handed pitchers in 2019. He posted a .484 wOBA and .379 ISO in those situations, thanks in part to an average exit velocity of 97.6 miles per hour and a 53.4% hard-hit rate. He hasn’t been nearly the same hitter in 2020 but his track record suggests he’s due for some positive regression moving forward.
Omar Narváez ($3,000) also stands out as a nice value option at catcher. It’s hard to find a catcher who actually contributes offensively, but Narváez posted a .365 wOBA and .208 ISO vs. right-handers last season. He’s also expected to occupy the No. 6 spot in the lineup, which is not a bad spot for a catcher.
Players to Consider
Christian Yelich ($5,100)
Keston Hiura ($5,000)
Ryan Braun ($4,200) Avisail Garcia ($3,700)
Justin Smoak ($3,300)
Omar Narváez ($3,000)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Ryan Braun (back) has been scratched from the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Pirates. Avisail Garcia is not in the lineup.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are the only other team on the slate with an implied team total above five runs. Arizona is playing at home, which has historically been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, and the D-Backs have a strong matchup today vs. Giants right-hander Trevor Cahill ($5,900). He has been excellent through his first 11.0 innings this season, posting a 1.64 ERA but he pitched to a 6.13 FIP over 102 1⁄3 innings in 2019. The big difference has been that batters have managed just a .174 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2020, so he’s a big-time regression candidate.
The Diamondbacks have a bunch of interesting options but Kole Calhoun ($4,300) stands out as the projected leadoff hitter. He has been awesome against right-handers this season, posting a 148 wRC+ and .394 wOBA and has also displayed tons of pop, clubbing eight HRs over just 87 at-bats.
Players to Consider
Starling Marte ($5,000)
Ketel Marte ($4,900)
Kole Calhoun ($4,300)
Christian Walker ($3,900)
Eduardo Escobar ($3,900)
David Peralta ($3,700)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.