The NBA is back in full swing and Monday brings us a six-game betting card, spaced out throughout the afternoon and evening. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook on Monday.
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Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat: TOR -3.5 (-112)
The Raptors and Heat both had double-digit victories on Saturday, but Miami’s was the far less impressive of the two, defeating a Denver team without three of its starters. The Raptors handled the Lakers by 15 in the primetime game, holding the Purple and Gold to just 92 points. Toronto has struggled some against Miami, but the only full-strength game went to OT. The Raptors lost by eight in the most recent contest but were without Pascal Siakam. Prior to beating up on the shorthanded Nuggets, the Heat had failed to cover 11 of the teams’ past 16 games entering the bubble.
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat: UNDER 221 (-112)
If you watched Saturday night’s game against the Lakers, you saw just how terrific Toronto looked on defense. The Raptors got some size back in the rotation entering the bubble and those minutes from guys like Marc Gasol help clog the paint and slow the game down. While the OT contest between these two teams obviously went over, we saw just 160 points the last time these teams met — although no Siakam didn’t help. I think we start to see the trend of “bubble overs” hit a wall on Monday.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets: OKC -6
This line opened at 4.5 and should be on the move all day. The Nuggets were without three starting wings on Saturday and lost by 20 to the Heat. Will Barton and Gary Harris will remain sidelined and Jamal Murray feels to be on the wrong side of a questionable tag. The Thunder blew the doors off the Jazz on Saturday afternoon and OKC’s three-point-guard lineup should be extremely difficult for Denver’s “tall ball” lineup to handle. OKC beat Denver by 12 as a 1.5-point favorite the last time these two teams met.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz: UNDER 217
I expect this total to get bet down throughout the day, especially as the last game on Monday. This is just a matchup between two defensive teams and Utah has been awful on offense in two bubble games, certainly feeling the loss of Bojan Bogdanovic. Both teams are 2-0 to the under in bubble games and cashing unders by a wide margin. The Lakers stayed under by 16 against the Clippers and 26 against the Raptors, while the Jazz stayed under by 19 against the Pelicans and 14.5 against the Thunder — Utah only had 62 points entering the fourth quarter of a blowout game though, scoring 32 in the final frame.
These two teams met twice during the regular season, finishing with totals of 217 and 181. The Lakers have now hit five consecutive unders, including eight of the past 10 overall.
This one’s going to be a two-unit play for me, as the strongest play on the board. I’m fine with the number down to 215.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.