Monday’s MLB slate is on the smaller side, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still look for some betting value. There are nine games to choose from, starting with the Reds vs. Cleveland at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s take a look at five of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Under 3.5 F5 (+118)
Things continue to get worse and worse for the Mets. Not only did New York lose another game yesterday, but the Mets also lost a player. Yoenis Cespedes disappeared without warning before opting out for the rest of the season, adding another strange chapter to the Mets’ strange history.
That said, the Mets do get to send Jacob deGrom to the mound today, which is basically the only good thing the team has going for it. The Mets’ ace is one of the best pitchers in baseball, so it’s not surprising that backing the under has historically been profitable over the first five innings. The under has gone 45-34-6 over the first five innings when deGrom is pitching on the road in particular.
The Braves will hand the ball to Mike Soroka, who is no slouch in his own right. Soroka posted a 2.68 ERA in 2019, and he’s pitched to a 1.59 ERA over his first two starts this season. The Mets can’t hit against anyone, so they should struggle against a quality pitcher like Soroka.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Under 13.0 (-117)
This bet was looking good yesterday until the Rockies and Padres exploded for nine runs over the final two innings. Such is the life of betting unders at Coors Field.
That obviously stings a little, but I’m going right back to the well today. The numbers still suggest that this is a good long-term wager – unders at Coors have gone 50-32-2 ATS over the past four seasons with a total between 12 and 14 – and the Giants’ offense isn’t nearly as effective as the Padres. San Francisco ranked just 28th in wRC+ vs. right-handers in 2020.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Giants ML (+128)
I’m doubling dipping on this game today and backing the Giants in addition to the under. The Giants’ starting pitcher hasn’t been finalized yet for today’s outing, but it’s expected that San Francisco will be sending Johnny Cueto to the mound. He’s been hit-or-miss to start the year. He was excellent in his first outing, limiting the Dodgers to just one run over four innings, but he followed that up by allowing three runs over 3 2/3 innings in his second start. Still, Cueto has historically been a strong starting pitcher, even if he’s on the downside of his career.
No one is going to be able to make that argument for Chi Chi Gonzalez. He posted a 5.29 ERA over 63 innings pitched in 2019 and he struggled in particular vs. left-handed batters. The Giants don’t have a ton of strong batters in the lineup, but the one guy who should be feared is Mike Yastrzemski. The fact that he bats from the left side should be a positive in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Padres ML (+123)
This should be an excellent pitching matchup between two of the best young starters in the game. The Dodgers will turn to Walker Buehler, who finished ninth in NL Cy Young voting in 2019. The Padres send Chris Paddack to the mound, who has been lights out through his first two starts this season. He has allowed just two earned runs over his first 11 innings pitched. That includes six scoreless innings in his first start in San Diego, which is where today’s contest will be played.
Paddack being awesome at home is not a new development. The Padres were 9-3 with Paddack on the mound in San Diego last year, resulting in a return on investment of +25.7% for bettors. I’ll roll the dice with Paddack as a small underdog in this situation.
Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals
Cubs ML (-157)
I don’t typically like to bet on favorites in baseball, but this line seems too low. The Cubs have been one of the best teams in baseball this season, while the Royals have been one of the worst.
The Royals will have their “ace” on the mound in Danny Duffy, but the Cubs should still have the pitching edge. Duffy has struggled to a 5.79 ERA through his first two starts this season. Alec Mills will get the ball for the Cubs and he posted a 2.75 ERA last year and a 3.00 ERA in his first start this season. He doesn’t have a ton of starts at the MLB level, but he still looks like the superior pitching option.
Offensively, the Cubs have a huge edge. Chicago currently ranks seventh in wRC+ vs. southpaws, which makes sense given the plethora of good right-handed hitters in the Cubs’ lineup (Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, Willson Contreras, etc). Meanwhile, the Royals rank just 22nd in wRC+ vs. right-handers after finishing 25th in that department in 2019.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.