If you’ve been struggling to pick pitching options to use over the past few days, don’t you fret, this slate has a plethora of options to use. Big decision will needed to be made with names of Jacob deGrom ($11,600) and Gerrit Cole ($11,000) taking the hill.
This piece will cover the main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gerrit Cole, $11,000, NYY (-305) vs. PHI (+250) — Cole and the Yankees aren’t just favorites, they’re massive favorites against the Phillies. He’ll be opposed by Jake Arrieta ($6,200) who’ll be making his first start of the season thanks to the COVID-19 outbreak on the Marlins that has put Philly on the sidelines since July 26. Now the Phillies have to come in after not seeing game action for a week and face Cole. 2020 is truly not fair. This should be a great spot for the Yankees overall, as Arrieta posted a 4.99 FIP on the road last season. Coupled with that and the prolonged layoff for these bats and this could end up being an easy win for the Yanks.
Other notable favorites: Lewis Thorpe ($8,400; -240) vs. Pirates, Frankie Montas ($7.200; -186) vs. Mariners
Highest Projected Total
SF (+118) vs. COL (-137) 13 runs — A massive total at Coors Field this evening as Johnny Cueto ($5,100) matches up against Chi Chi Gonzalez ($6,200). The Rockies boast a 6.5 team total against Cueto, who hasn’t seen past the fourth inning in both of his starts, allowing five runs on nine hits with a 7:4 K:BB ratio through 7 2⁄3 innings. Cueto isn’t giving up much hard contact with just a 26.1% hard-hit rate but he’s also not missing many bats with a 6.3% swing-and-miss rate. The ownership on Coors is also going to be very interesting to watch with so many big-name pitchers on this slate.
Other notable team totals: Yankees (5.5) vs. Phillies, Twins (5.5) vs. Pirates, A’s (5.5) vs. Mariners
Clear night of baseball!
Splits to Start
Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jake Arrieta, .387, 6.39
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .362, 6.36
Danny Duffy, .339, 4.66
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Derek Holland, .244, 3.51
Gerrit Cole, .249, 2.76
Brett Anderson, .258, 4.16
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Derek Holland, .406, 7.31
Lewis Thorpe, .384, 3.62
Justus Sheffield, .380, 3.94
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .234, 2.20
Mike Soroka, .235, 2.74
Gerrit Cole, .243, 2.51
Pitcher to Build Around
Frankie Montas, OAK at SEA, $7,200 —Look, we have a number of really strong options to consider tonight but I’m really, really digging Montas against the Mariners. His 80-game suspension caused him to be looked over by many and that could be to our benefit until people notice. In the early going, the Mariners are already near the top of the league in K% against righties at 26.2% and near the bottom half in ISO at .150. With how affordable Montas is, I think he gives you some real flexibility while also not skimping out on a good matchup. In his lone start against Seattle last season, Montas allowed two runs on six hits while striking out nine.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Javier Baez, CHC vs. KCR, $4,800 — The Cubs will get their first look against the Royals, as Kansas City travels to Wrigley Field for a series. Baez completely annihilated lefties at home last season, posting an absurd .420 wOBA with a .298 ISO. Baez has been making some really good contact thus far, the ball just hasn’t been going where he wants. His 44.4% hard-hit rate indicates better days could be coming and I think against Danny Duffy ($6,600) this could be a perfect time to start.
Save Big by Drafting
Marwin Gonzalez/Josh Donaldson, MIN vs. PIT, $2,900/$3,900 — Gonzalez has been filling in for Donaldson, who has been sidelined due to a calf injury. If Donaldson is back tonight, he can easily be a value play to use as well, so all is not completely lost if Gonzalez sits. Last season, Gonzalez had a .332 wOBA and a .167 ISO against lefties and now will face Derek Holland, who I expect to get smashed tonight. His presence alone in this lineup is worth using with how cheap he is, especially given how expensive some of these stacks and pitchers will. If Donaldson is in, even better, as his .231 ISO against lefties is hard to ignore at this price.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Donaldson is not in the lineup for today’s game vs. the Pirates.
Favorite Team To Stack
CWS at MIL (Brett Anderson) — We have some stacks that’ll be widely popular this evening, including the Yankees, Twins and Coors Field. One that I like that I wouldn’t be surprised won’t get much love is the White Sox in Milwaukee. The White Sox have some legit power against lefties, headlined by Edwin Encarnacion ($4,400) at .349. Four other players had an ISO over .200 with Yasmani Grandal ($4,700), Jose Abreu ($4,200), Yoan Moncada ($4,400) and Eloy Jimenez ($4,000). At low ownership, I’m targeting the White Sox tonight.
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