The NBA is back up and running in Orlando. Since the league is in action, DraftKings is hosting massive DFS contests every day and we have another big slate of action on Tuesday. Set your DraftKings lineups here: NBA $600K Tuesday Shootaround [$150K to 1st].
Russell Westbrook, HOU vs. POR ($9,400) — This is a bit too low of a price tag for Westbrook given how well he is playing in the bubble. In the Rockets’ two games, Westbrook is averaging 56.13 DKFP. Typically, James Harden ($11,300) is garnering more ownership than Russ, but it’s Westbrook who is the better value on this slate. There is also reason to like his individual matchup against Damian Lillard ($9,900). As great as Dame is on offense, he is one of the worst defenders in the league. Lillard ranks 82nd among all point guards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, and overall, the Blazers are 27th in the league in defensive efficiency.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND vs. ORL ($5,400) — After sitting out the first game of the restart, Brogdon returned yesterday and looked great. He scored 41.25 DKFP and played 35 minutes. The workload is really encouraging because it shows that he is totally healthy after spending time on the injury report. Considering that Brogdon was priced over $7,000 prior to the league shutting down, this price tag is a good buy-low window on Brogdon before the pricing algorithm realizes that he is healthy. Even though a matchup against the Magic isn’t ideal, Brogdon scored 37.75 DKFP against them earlier in the season.
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Jimmy Butler, MIA vs. BOS ($7,200) — For playoff seeding, this matchup has some significance. If everything breaks right for Miami, it could potentially move up to the three seed in the East. The Heat are chasing the Celtics, so a win today is pivotal if they hope to move up in the standings. For this reason, I think Butler should play full minutes even though the Heat are playing on the tail end of a back-to-back. He’s averaging 40.88 DKFP in his first two bubble games.
Lou Williams, LAC vs. PHO ($5,000) — After being forced to quarantine for 10 days following what I will label as extracurricular activities, Williams is expected to return today. Assuming this is the case, he has immense upside at this price tag. Even though he will likely come off the bench, this isn’t reason to avoid the reigning Sixth Man of the Year. He averages 31.17 DKFP as a reserve this season. The only thing we need to check is whether there is a minutes restriction. As long as Williams plays at least 25 minutes, this price tag has value in a plus matchup against the Suns.
Luka Doncic, DAL vs. SAC ($10,700) — This is a fun stretch where Luka gets to play against teams that passed on him in the draft. After scoring 65 DKFP against the Suns, who had the first pick in 2018, Luka gets to play the Kings, who passed on him with the second pick in the draft. Dating back to before the shutdown, Doncic scored at least 63 DKFP in four of his last five games. In his last game against the Kings, he put up a 25-15-17 triple-double and scored 70.75 DKFP. Expect him to make the Kings regret on passing him up again.
Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL vs. SAC ($4,200) — There aren’t many viable cheap options at small forward on this slate. Of course this can change with injury news, but at the moment, paying up at the position looks like the way to go. If you must go cheap, Finney-Smith is playing 30 minutes per game in the bubble and might need to fill extra wing minutes since Seth Curry (leg) is doubtful to play. Overall, Finney-Smith averages 21.38 DKFP as a starter, which represents some value at his current salary.
Deandre Ayton, PHO vs. LAC ($7,500) — The Clippers’ frontcourt remains shorthanded. With Montrezl Harrell out for another game, I don’t see Los Angeles possessing the size to matchup against a big like Ayton. For the season, he averages 40.95 DKFP on 18.8 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. Something I really like about Ayton is that he is clearly adding new dimensions to his game. After going his entire career without making a three, he knocked down two of them in the Suns’ first game of the restart.
Zach Collins, POR vs. HOU ($4,300) — Collins’ fantasy results in the bubble have been underwhelming. After missing almost the entire season due to a shoulder injury, the time off allowed him to return. The good news is that Portland values him enough that he is in the starting lineup. Collins is starting and playing over 30 minutes per game. Last year, he averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute so his production should pick up considering the amount of run he’s getting. In addition, Portland is likely going to need him against the Rockets. Playing big lineups could struggle against a small team like Houston and Collins is a versatile big.
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL vs. SAC ($9,000) — The Mavericks’ star duo is looking great these days. Not only is Luka playing great in the bubble, Porzingis is proving he’s a perfectly second star. He might get overshadowed by Doncic’s start lines, but KP is averaging 61.25 DKFP in his two games since the restart. Earlier in the season, Dallas played it careful with Porzingis’ workload since he missed all of last season recovering from ACL surgery. The training wheels came off for the bubble. He’s averaging 38 minutes per game as the Mavs get him ready for the playoffs.
Richaun Holmes, SAC vs. DAL ($5,200) — After picking a couple of players going against the Kings, I also need to point out that the Sacramento is in a good spot. The total for this game is 237. The expectation is for a ton of scoring, so we can roster players from both sides. Holmes is one player that stands out to me. During the restart, he’s struggled with foul trouble and his minutes are down. In general, he’s played really well as a starter this season. In 35 starts, he averages 30.33 DKFP, so we should expect a good fantasy outcome in a plus matchup as long as he sticks in the starting unit.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.