Monday’s slate is a little light on baseball. We’ve got a couple of afternoon games, starting with the Mets vs. the Marlins at 1:10 p.m. ET, followed by a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. That said, that doesn’t mean we can’t still find some betting value.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate.
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New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays:
Rays ML (+128)
This should be an excellent matchup featuring two of the best pitchers in baseball.
The Yankees will turn to Gerrit Cole and we know how dominant he can be. He was insanely good in 2019, pitching to a 2.50 ERA and 13.82 K/9. He hasn’t been as impressive with the Yankees but he has pitched just 41 innings. Even though we’re basically halfway through the season, that’s still an insignificant sample size.
The Rays are sending Tyler Glasnow to the mound, who is absolutely filthy when he’s on his game. He has struggled to a 5.14 ERA this season but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been extremely unlucky. His 2.75 xFIP is much more indicative of the type of pitcher that he actually is.
Glasnow has already beaten Cole once this season, and this current iteration of the Yankees’ lineup is not particularly imposing. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres are all on the IL plus Aaron Hicks could miss today’s contest after leaving yesterday’s game early with cramps in both legs.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals:
Over 10.0 runs (-117)
This game features a pitching matchup between Erick Fedde and Spencer Howard and both guys have been dreadful this season.
Let’s start with Howard. He has plenty of promise in the majors, entering the season as the No. 26 overall prospect according to FanGraphs but he has failed to live up to that billing thus far. He has a 6.17 ERA over 11 2⁄3 innings, and his 6.99 FIP is even more concerning. He has been victimized by the long ball, in particular, allowing an average of 3.09 HRs per nine innings.
On the other side, Fedde is simply a replacement-level starter. He posted a 5.34 FIP over 78 innings last year and has followed that up with a 5.65 FIP this season. He projects to be a back-end starter at best in the majors, so the Phillies should also be able to find some success in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals:
Reds ML (-121)
The Reds are looking like one of the preferred targets for professional bettors today. They’ve garnered just 45% of the moneyline bets in this contest but those bets have accounted for 71% of the money wagered.
The Reds are taking on right-hander Dakota Hudson, who seems like a prime regression candidate moving forward. He has limited opposing batters to a .208 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is clearly unsustainable over the long term. Hudson is someone who figures to be better than average in that category due to his high ground ball rate but he still posted a mark of .274 in that department last season. That’s a huge decrease.
The Reds’ offense hasn’t been as good as expected this season but Cincinnati still projected to be excellent against right-handed pitchers. The Reds should improve over the second half of the season with big left-handed bats like Mike Moustakas, Joey Votto and Jesse Winker in their lineup.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.