The NBA keeps rolling right along in Orlando, and we’ve got another six games on the docket for Tuesday. The action commences with the Milwaukee Bucks vs. the Brooklyn Nets at 1:30 p.m. ET and concludes with the Portland Trail Blazers vs. the Houston Rockets at 9:00 p.m. ET. That’s a full day of NBA action to keep you occupied!
Here are some of my favorite bets to target on Tuesday’s NBA slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Houston Rockets: Under 244 (-110)
The Blazers and Rockets have been two of the top offensive teams in basketball during the restart. The Rockets have gone 2-0 over that span, averaging 136.5 points in impressive wins over the Mavericks and Bucks. One of those games went into overtime, but the Rockets have still averaged 129.5 points per game during regulation.
On the other side, the Blazers have averaged 124 points per game during regulation in their two contests.
So why the under? History suggests that this is just a very difficult total to hit the over on. The under has gone 19-10-1 against the spread on totals of between 240 and 248 points over the past four seasons. That’s a cover rate of 65.5%.
If you’re looking for a trend with a larger sample size, it has historically been profitable to play the under when two teams who average at least 110 points per 100 possessions square off against it each other. The under has gone 243-218-5 in that situation, resulting in a return on investment of +3.1%.
Indiana Pacers vs. Orlando Magic: Pacers +2 (-110)
The Magic have looked impressive in Orlando, but it’s important not to get too caught up in recent results. They still own just the seventh-best record in the Eastern Conference and rank just 15th in the NBA in Net Rating. They’ve actually been outscored over the course of the season, so this team is far from a juggernaut.
I think this is a nice opportunity to sell high on Orlando. The Pacers are missing Domantas Sabonis, who was their best player during the first part of the season, but they still don’t deserve to be underdogs in this situation.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics: Celtics -3.5 (-110)
I like this spot for the Celtics. The Heat are a strong offensive team, but they’re coming off a grueling loss vs. the Raptors on Monday. That means they’ll be on the second leg of a back-to-back, while the Celtics will be coming off a rest day.
The Celtics have also had Miami’s number this season. They own a 2-0 record vs. the Heat, and they’ve won both contests by at least eight points.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets: Under
You have to feel bad for the Nets at this point. They were hit very hard by injuries and withdrawals before the bubble, and they arguably just lost their three best players who actually made the trip to Orlando. They’ll be without Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, and Jarrett Allen for today’s contest vs. the Bucks, who have been the best team in basketball by a significant margin.
With that in mind, I’m not expecting the Bucks to roll out their usual lineup in this contest. It wouldn’t shock me to see Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez all get the day off, which would leave the Bucks pretty shorthanded as well.
I’m locking in the under early before the news hits. If the Bucks do rest their starters, expect the total to fall as well. The under also has a chance if the Bucks starters play since they could legitimately hold the Nets to 80 points or less. That gives us multiple ways to win this wager.
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