On Wednesday, we’ll get our first real taste of just how strange an all-day slate of basketball can be. The Nets have easily been the team with the most roster turnover in the past couple of months and that trend has continued through three games in the bubble. Seriously, go look at Brooklyn’s box score from Tuesday’s surprising 119-116 win over Milwaukee. It’s unrecognizable from October. Anyway, the DFS world has been able to survive the Nets’ quirks as the team has been slotted into the early contest each and every time Brooklyn has taken the court, meaning we’ve had a starting lineup before lock. Not this time. Brooklyn won’t tip against Boston until 9:00 p.m. ET, meaning there’s a chance we won’t know the status of several players for much of the day. It’s a wrinkle you’ll have to be prepared for.
Let’s break down everything else you’ll need to know position-by-position.
Kyle Lowry, TOR at ORL, $8,400 - The frustrating part of dealing with the Raptors in DFS is you really never know who is going to go off on any given slate. One day Fred VanVleet ($7,700) sets a career-high in points, the next it could be Pascal Siakam ($8,800). Still, if there’s been a constant as of late, it’s been Lowry. In fact, going back across the All-Star’s past 15 starts, the veteran point guard is averaging an eye-popping 46.9 DKFP. It’s not like Nick Nurse is easing Lowry back into playing shape, either. Through a pair of matchups in the bubble, the 34-year-old is seeing 35.0 minutes and 87.5 touches per game. Knowing how competitive Lowry is, I doubt that load changes on Wednesday.
Other Option: Donovan Mitchell ($7,500)
Mike Conley, UTA vs. MEM, $5,800 - We’ve reached a point where I just sort of trust Conley to hit value in the mid-tier. Obviously, it’s easier to now forget the beginning of 2019-20 — it feels like seven years have passed since then — but the veteran has been a different player since the start of February. In that span of 16 games, Conley’s averaged 31.0 DKFP per night while also maintaining a pristine 59.2% true shooting rate. With Bojan Bogdanovic’s (wrist) absence creating more shots, I like Conley to have a good showing against an uptempo Grizzlies squad.
Other Option: Ish Smith ($4,800)
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Jaylen Brown, BOS vs. BKN, $6,900 - While we might not know a lot about the Nets’ rotation on Wednesday night, we do already know that Kemba Walker (rest) will be held out for the Celtics on the second leg of a back-to-back. That pretty much means usage bumps for every player in green across the board, but I did want to make special mention of Brown. The former lottery pick has sort of flown under the radar thanks to teammate Jayson Tatum’s ($8,200) emergence in 2019-20, yet Brown’s been solid all season. In his past nine starts, the 23-year-old has averaged 37.6 DKFP while never scoring less than 31.5 DKFP. This includes a double-double performance Tuesday evening in a loss to Miami.
Other Option: Derrick White ($5,900)
Luguentz Dort, OKC at LAL, $3,200 - Dort’s overall ceiling is pretty low, but his ability to defend multiple positions on the wing earns him some serious run in Billy Donovan’s system. To wit, the 21-year-old is coming off logging 36 minutes in the Thunder’s OT loss to the Nuggets on Monday. I just don’t see how that role changes with Dennis Schroder (personal) currently out of the bubble. If Dort can make some open three-pointers - he’s 2-for-11 so far in Orlando - he’ll have little issue reaching value.
Ben Simmons, PHI at WAS, $8,700 - I’m of two minds here. On one hand, Simmons is coming off a terrible performance on Monday and the 76ers shouldn’t really have to exert themselves to beat the Wizards. On the other hand, I’m at the point where I can’t trust Philadelphia to win any game. Ever. The thing to really note in this spot is the 76ers’ pace through two contests in Orlando. Philadelphia is averaging 104.3 possessions per 48 minutes and has an insane offensive rating of 121.4. That sounds like heaven for a guard that thrives in transition like Simmons. Considering he’s exceeded 45.0 DKFP in 11 of his past 18 starts, I’ll take a chance on the upside.
Other Option: Jayson Tatum ($8,200)
Troy Brown Jr., WAS vs. PHI, $5,500 - Speaking of the 76ers’ uptempo style, Philadelphia is also a squad that’s surrendered a whopping 123.0 opponent points per 100 possessions so far in the bubble. That should mean a decent opportunity for a few different Wizards to shine, with Brown an obvious asset to target. The sophomore’s done a little of everything with Washington as depleted as it is, sitting third on the team in total minutes (96), third in DKFP per minute (1.13) and second in assist rate (25.8%). Additionally, Brown’s grabbed 17 rebounds in the Wizards’ past two losses, just for good measure.
Anthony Davis, LAL vs. OKC, $10,300 - If you’re asking me which player I’d be most inclined to spend $10K on during Wednesday’s slate, the answer is Davis. The power forward has been amazing through three contests in Orlando, averaging 1.43 DKFP per minute of action and an incredibly efficient 1.33 points per possession used. Davis is also coming in directly on the heels of a 42-point outburst versus the Jazz, something you could 100% see on the horizon after the All-Star’s aggressiveness was called into question following a loss to the Raptors. I assume Davis will be full throttle once again against the Thunder.
Other Option: Michael Porter Jr. ($6,200)
Brandon Clarke, MEM at UTA, $4,600 - It’s fair to worry about how chalky this play will be, and Clarke’s certainly been underwhelming in the few opportunities he’s had to start in 2019-20. However, this is a big opportunity for the rookie. With Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) now out for the rest of the season, Clarke will be looked upon to step into his vacant role. In Orlando, it’s been quite a large one, too. Jackson was second on the team in minutes (110) and usage rate (24.9%) through three games. At this modest price, I’ll have some exposure.
Other Option: Rudy Gay ($5,600)
Nikola Jokic, DEN at SA, $9,700 - There’s a chance that Jamal Murray ($7,300) will end up being active on Wednesday but even if he’s cleared you know he’ll be on a restriction. That should continue to free up Jokic, who has been doing everything for the Nuggets with Murray, Will Barton (knee) and Gary Harris (hip) absent in the bubble. Through three games, Jokic owns a massive 32.0% usage rate and he’s averaged 1.37 DKFP per minute played. I anticipate he’ll keep doing damage against an undersized San Antonio team that’s been playing at a breakneck pace since its return (105.3).
Other Options: Joel Embiid ($10,400), Thomas Bryant ($6,800)
Jarrett Allen, BKN at BOS, $5,400 - By all accounts, Allen was completely healthy when he was ruled out of Tuesday’s contest with Milwaukee. So, one would assume that the big man will be good to go when the Nets meet the Celtics on Wednesday evening. Allen’s coming off a huge double-double in his last appearance, as the 22-year-old racked up 22 points and 15 rebounds versus the hapless Wizards. Boston will pose as a more daunting opponent, but Allen could be Brooklyn’s No. 2 scoring option depending on who else suits up.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.