Wednesday night brings us a 10-game slate of baseball that doesn’t offer many expensive options at starting pitcher. In fact, Yu Darvish is the only starter priced above $10K, which should allow us to afford some of the high priced bats we’ll also be looking to target.
This piece will cover the main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yu Darvish, $10,400, CHC (-210) at KCR (+180) — As they were yesterday, the Cubs are the biggest favorites of the night as they continue their series against the Royals. Darvish will take the mound for the third time this season as he continues to benefit from a generous schedule, having previous faced the Brewers and Pirates. The Royals haven’t been much of a threat thus far, posting just a .279 wOBA with a .159 ISO and a 23.1 K% against righties. On top of that, Darvish pitched his best baseball away from Wrigley Field last season with a .273 wOBA and a 3.75 FIP. I expect Darvish to be extremely popular on this slate despite being the only pitcher priced above $10K.
Other notable favorites: Randy Dobnak ($7,200; -186) vs. Pirates, Sean Manaea ($8,600; -180) vs. Rangers
Highest Projected Total
HOU (-137) vs. ARI (+145) 9.5 runs — No double-digit totals on the slate for tonight, so the 9.5 with the Astros and Diamondbacks is the largest amongst the 10 games. Facing their second lefty in a row, it’s not a surprise to see the Astros favored here against Robbie Ray ($6,500). The strikeout potential he holds is immense, but he simply can’t put it all together and gets knocked around often. Last season at home against righties, Ray allowed a .338 wOBA with a 4.59 FIP and 11 of his 30 home runs. The Astros have a number of bats in this lineup that hit lefties well, a list that includes Alex Bregman ($5,300), Carlos Correa ($4,300), George Springer ($5,700) and Yuli Gurriel ($4,500). This is a stack I’d be looking to target and think they can easily exceed their 4.5 projected team total.
Other notable team totals: Cubs (5.5) vs. Royals, Twins (4.5) vs. Pirates, Angels (4.5) vs. Mariners
Clear night of baseball!
Splits to Start
Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Williams, .393, 5.64
Kyle Gibson, .347, 4.58
Adrian Houser, .347, 4.11
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Hyun-Jin Ryu, .225, 3.24
Dallas Keuchel, .268, 3.21
Robbie Ray, .272, 2.91
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dallas Keuchel, .339, 5.08
Robbie Ray, .337, 4.73
Trevor Williams, .319, 4.78
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Clevinger, .236, 1.75
Adrian Houser, .265, 3.71
Yu Darvish, .266 3.63
Pitcher to Build Around
Sean Manaea, OAK vs. TEX, $8,600 — It’s still early in the season but the Rangers have one of the highest K% in the league against lefties at 29.3%. They’re a team that can hit for power against lefties, but when they’re not, they’re striking out at a high rate. I’m not overly concerned about the bloated ERA from Manaea either, as his 2.88 FIP states otherwise. I think that could scare people off, potentially giving him a low ownership.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Kris Bryant, CHC at KCR, $4,800 — I love that the Cubs are using Bryant in the leadoff spot and with a lefty on the mound tonight, I’ll be all over him. Bryant posted some monster numbers against lefties last season with a .432 wOBA and a .333 ISO. Tonight, he’ll be taking on Kris Bubic ($6,400), who’ll be making just his second major league start. The Cubs have one of the highest team totals on that slate, so getting Bryant, who should be at the top of the lineup, makes perfect sense.
Save Big by Drafting
J.P. Crawford, SEA vs. LAA, $3,800 — Julio Teheran ($7,500) will be making his Angels debut after recovering from COVID-19. Overall, I think he’s in a decent spot against a weak Mariners lineup, but it’s well known that he’s struggled with lefties throughout his career. Last season he allowed a .308 wOBA and nine of his 22 total home runs, while pitching to a 5.21 FIP within the split. Crawford had some sneaky numbers against righties last season with a .333 wOBA and a .201 ISO, making him a potential one-off to use from the Mariners.
Favorite Team To Stack
TOR at ARL (Sean Newcomb) — It’s been a rough go for Newcomb ($6,000) so far this season in two starts against the Mets and I don’t think much will change tonight. The Blue Jays have some bats with good pop against lefties and Newcomb has looked abysmal thus far. His control has been shaky, his FIP is already at 7.04 and he’s allowed a 40.7% hard-hit rate. I’m hoping the Blue Jays will end up as one of the lower owned stacks on the evening, as I think this is a great spot for them to offensively turn things around.
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