Friday brings us back to a nice, normal start time of 7:05 with a massive 13-game slate! We truly have so many different ways we can try and tackle this slate, so let’s get right into it.
This piece will cover the main slate, so let’s get into all the information. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Julio Urias, $9,800, LAD (-265) at SF (+220) — Urias is coming off a strong outing against the Diamondbacks, tossing six innings allowing two run on five hits with five strikeouts, good for 19.9 DKFP. He’ll be facing the Giants for the second time time, a team he allowed only one run on five hits and striking out three. Despite the matchup being one that favors Urias, I’m not convinced I want to use him in my lineups. The Giants, to this point, have one of the lowest K% in the league against lefties at just 19%, which ranks them 24th in the league. Urias is generating swings-and-misses at 13.1% in his two starts but he feels awfully expensive for someone who has eight strikeouts through 11 innings. If the slate were smaller, Urias would be more attractive but with 26 pitchers to choose from, he’s not high on my list.
Other notable favorites: Devin Smeltzer ($6,300; -180) vs. Royals, Griffin Canning ($8,200; -162) vs. Rangers
Highest Projected Total
Braves (-106) vs. PHI (-109) 9.5 runs — Despite a number of games on this slate, none of them have crossed the double-digit mark as of early Friday morning. The Braves at Phillies currently has the highest over/under at 9.5 with Kyle Wright ($6,100) on for the Braves and Vincent Velasquez ($6,900) for the Phillies. Both teams have a total of 4.5 runs but I would tend to side with the Braves in this one. While we haven’t seen a ton of Wright in the majors, we’ve seen plenty of Velasquez. Last season at home, he allowed a .333 wOBA with a 5.12 FIP and 10 of his 26 home runs allowed. As always, lefties are the first bats to target against Velasquez, tagging him with a .411 wOBA and a 7.35 FIP at Citizens Bank Park. Overall, I do think this has the potential to be one of the highest scoring games and would focus on getting some of these bats in your lineup.
Other notable team totals: Twins (5.5) vs. Royals, Angels (5.5) vs. Rangers
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Clear night of baseball!
Splits to Start
Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 10.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Antonio Senzatela, .394, 6.11
Eric Lauer, .385, 5.20
Jordan Lyles, .382, 5.90
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Greinke, .255, 3.38
Luke Weaver, .268, 2.89
Aaron Civale, .281, 2.47
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Yusei Kikuchi, .374, 5.76
Michael Wacha, .371, 5.72
Antonio Senzatela, .352, 4.87
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Julio Urias, .247, 3.19
Aaron Civale, .261, 4.02
Ryan Weber, .262 2.60
Pitcher to Build Around
Trevor Bauer, CIN at MIL, $10,600 — Yes, he’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate but I really like this matchup for Bauer. The Brewers have showed some signs of life of coming out of their early season offensive struggles but they aren’t quite there yet. They have the third-highest K% in the league against righties at 27.1% to go with just a .319 wOBA and a .122 ISO. Bauer has only faced the Tigers up to this point, who the highest K% against righties at 30.3% and has come away with 20 strikeouts through 13.1 innings.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Rafael Devers, BOS vs. TOR, $5,100 — Devers isn’t exactly lighting the offensive world on fire so far this season, slashing .200/.265/.356 through 12 games, but I really think this is such a good spot for him. The Blue Jays will be deploying Tanner Roark ($8,100), who posted some atrocious numbers against lefties last season. Against them, Roark allowed a .370 wOBA with a 5.41 FIP and 15 of his 28 home runs allowed. Devers posted some monster power at Fenway last season with a .258 ISO, making this a matchup where he could show some signs of life.
Save Big by Drafting
Matt Kemp, COL at SEA, $3,300 — 2020 continues to be extremely unpredictable and it shows, as I’m sitting here writing about why you SHOULD be rostering Kemp. I’ll be honest, I didn’t even know he landed with the Rockies until last week when it popped up on Twitter that he hit a home run. Tonight he’ll be on the road facing Yusei Kikuchi ($5,000), who is also getting some Twitter hype because he shutout the A’s his last time out. Big whoop. Kemp has always been someone to use against lefties and when he was playing a relatively large role in 2018, ended with a .350 wOBA and a .235 ISO against them. At $3,300, it’s worth a shot.
Favorite Team To Stack
ATL at PHI (Vincent Velasquez) — Maybe this is a bit of a cop out answer because it does have the highest projected total but I truly like the Braves in this spot. This is a lineup I would find myself taking multiple players in so I may as well make them my favorite stack on this slate. When making your stack, make sure to focus on the lefties first because they tagged him with a .411 wOBA and a 7.35 FIP at Citizens Bank Park, and go from there.
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