Tuesday’s NBA slate has the potential for two really entertaining games. It starts with the Game 2 of the Raptors vs. Celtics at 5:30 p.m. ET and concludes with Game 7 of the Nuggets vs. Jazz at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s break down some of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for these contests.
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Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics:
I admittedly loved the Celtics heading into this series, but Game 1 was definitely a bit of an aberration. The Raptors were absolutely dreadful on offense, specifically in terms of 3-point shooting. They shot just 21.1% from 3-point range in that contest, which puts them in just the second percentile according to Cleaning the Glass.
It’s not like they were missing highly contested shots either. 34 of their 40 3-point attempts in Game 1 were classified as either “open” or “wide-open” on NBA.com, yet they made just nine of those 34 shots. The Raptors ranked eighth during the regular season in terms of 3-point shooting accuracy, so I’m not expecting a repeat performance today.
The Raptors also fit a nice buy-low trend for the playoffs. Teams who are coming off a loss in their previous contest and are favored against a lower seed have posted a record of 200-162-10 against the spread since 2006. That’s good for a +7.5% return on investment over a solid sample size.
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics:
VanVleet in particular stands out as someone who should shoot significantly better in today’s contest. He was just 3-16 from the field and 2-11 from 3-point range in Game 1, and both marks are well below his regular season averages.
He also scored just nine points in the final game of his first round series vs. the Nets, but he was limited to just 19 minutes in a blowout win. He had scored at least 22 points in each of his first three playoff games this season, so this number has definitely been deflated by his recent performance.
As long as he continues to play big minutes and put up a bunch of shots, I see no reason why he can’t hit the over on 18.5 points today.
Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz:
This series has been a major loss for those who believe in math and logic. Both of these teams have exceeded their expected offensive output by wide margins, yet no team has shown any sign of regression.
Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray have been the headliners – both players have multiple game with at least 50 points in this series – but they haven’t been the only hot shooters. Overall, these teams have combined for a ridiculous 252.6 points per 100 possessions through their first six games.
I’m starting to think these teams may never miss again, but I have to trust the process and back the under. These teams have played at a snail’s pace recently, so any shooting regression should result in an easy under. The Nuggets getting Gary Harris back in their last game should also help: he was one of their best defenders during the regular season.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.