We’re in the final quarter of 2020 which, holy crap, thank goodness. That also means we’re in the beginning of the final month of the regular season for baseball (sad!). We kick off the month of September with an 11-game slate that has very little weather concerns and some really good matchups to target on DraftKings. Let’s get into it.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Framber Valdez, $8,100, HOU (-278) vs. TEX (+230) — I go into more detail about why I like Valdez later in this article but this is such a great spot for him and the Astros. They’ll be taking on Luis Garcia ($4,000), who is expected to open this game followed by Jordan Lyles ($7,200). When it comes to Lyles, he’s been a total disaster on the mound and has a putrid 6.22 FIP through six appearances. His command has been bad, he’s not striking out anyone and he’s already given up five home runs through 24 1/3 innings. All this combined with a VERY cheap Valdez and you have yourself quite the favorites this evening.
Other notable favorites: Julio Urias ($9,700; -275) vs. Diamondbacks, Zach Plesac ($8,300; -200) vs. Royals
Highest Projected Total
SF vs. COL (TBD) runs — We’re expecting another big total at Coors Field with Kevin Gausman ($6,600) and Jon Gray ($6,300) taking the mound. This is a great spot for the Giants, as they take on a struggling Gray. At Coors this season, Gray has allowed a .315 wOBA with a 4.86 FIP and all four of his home runs allowed, which were all hit by lefties. The Giants have a number of lefties on this team that can do some damage, making me really lean in that direction. Gausman has been holding his own thus far and has been a fantastic source of strikeouts with a 31.6% K%, which is much higher than any mark he’s had throughout his career. While it’s always fair to target Coors, I find myself siding with the Giants in this one.
Other notable team totals: CHC (5.5) vs. PIT, ATL (5.5) vs. BOS
Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.
NYM @ BAL —This looks to be the only potential problem spot and by problem I mean hardly one at all. There’s a chance of rain all throughout the night but the risk looks minimal. It’s worth checking before we hit lock on DraftKings lineups but as of this morning, there’s nothing overly concerning.
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Harvey, .399, 6.41
Ryan Weber, .391, 6.73
Asher Wojciechowski, .362, 6.33
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Dallas Keuchel .232, 3.03
Patrick Corbin, .249, 2.13
Alex Young, .273, 4.85
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Harvey, .354, 6.52
Jon Lester, .341, 4.65
Asher Wojciechowski, .329, 4.69
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Julio Urias, .260, 3.11
Masahiro Tanaka, .282, 3.60
Aaron Nola, .295 4.02
Pitcher to Build Around
Framber Valdez, HOU vs. TEX, $8,100 —I don’t understand the pricing on Valdez at ALL. I mean sure, he went up $500 in salary but he’s way too cheap to be facing the Rangers at home. Valdez, if you haven’t noticed, is putting together one heck of a 2020 and has scored at least 20.7 DKFP in five straight starts. Now he faces a Rangers team that has the third highest K% at 26.3% to go with a .279 wOBA and a .152 ISO against lefties. Before even looking at the pricing on the slate and seeing this matchup, I assumed Valdez was EASILY going to be at least $9K. At $8,100? Lock him in.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Mike Yastrzemski, SF at COL, $5,800 — Big salary for Yastrzemski for this evening but I’m totally ok with paying up for him. Playing at Coors Field, he’ll be taking on Jon Gray ($6,300), who has really struggled on the mound this season. Specifically against lefties at home thus far, Gray has been tagged with a .349 wOBA, a 6.51 FIP and all four of his home runs allowed. As for Yastrzemski, he continues to produce some really strong numbers against righties with a .403 wOBA and a .256 ISO, along with four of his seven home runs.
Save Big by Drafting
Jason Heyward, CHC at PIT, $2,300 — It’s odd that Heyward is still so incredibly cheap because of how well he’s been hitting as of late. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 9.0 DKFP with three home runs, two doubles four RBI and eight walks. Tonight the Cubs will be facing Chad Kuhl ($7,700), who has good numbers on the surface but his 5.45 FIP indicates otherwise. Lefties have always been an issue for him and while he only has allowed a .301 wOBA against them, his 5.99 FIP has me intrigued. Regardless, $2,300 for Heyward at this time is way too cheap to leave on the board.
Favorite Team To Stack
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals (vs. Matt Harvey) — I commend the Royals with seeing if they could milk anything out of Harvey ($5,300) but it’s simply not working out. He’s made two starts already and has allowed seven runs on nine hits with only six strikeouts and four walks through 5 2/3 innings. It’s hard to not want to stack the Indians with that situation in front of us, even with this game at Kauffman Stadium. The Indians’ offense continues to improve and over the last week has a .347 wOBA with a .173 ISO.
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