MLB Best Bets had a second consecutive losing week, going 1-2 for -1.67 units. The losing week dropped our record for the 2020 season to 20-13-1 for +5.21 units. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s MLB betting card.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
I was initially looking at backing the Reds on the F5 line here, but after digging into the numbers, this one really sets up as a pitcher’s duel. Sonny Gray has a 1.94 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through seven starts, and has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. His second-worst outing was actually against the Cardinals, as he allowed two runs on four hits in six innings, speaking to just how good he’s been.
Kwang-Hyun Kim began the season in the bullpen for the Cardinals, but has transitioned into a starter since mid-August. In those three starts, he’s allowed just one earned run in 15.2 innings with nine total hits — good for a 0.57 ERA. He faced the Reds in one of those starts, allowing three hits in six innings, shutting them out otherwise. Offensively, St. Louis ranks 24th and Cincinnati 27th in runs per game this season, so I think we’ll see teams struggle to generate offense in this matchup, particularly early.
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
The Braves run line was a play of mine on Monday, and it was a winner. It’s never great to keep going back to the same spot, but this one sets up as an eerily similar matchup. Ian Anderson is coming off his big league debut for the Braves, dazzling against the Yankees, allowing just one run in six innings — it was a homer on the only hit he allowed. Anderson was spectacular in his minor-league career, with a 2.91 ERA over 80 starts. The only knock on him was that he did struggle in five Triple-A starts in 2019, with a 6.57 ERA in that span. I’m trusting the big picture, though.
Ryan Weber starts for Boston, who is just another garbage bullpen arm that’s being forced into a larger role. Weber has a 6.00 ERA through 24.0 innings and eight appearances this season. After the Braves covered on Monday, of the 23 losses the Red Sox have racked up, 19 have come by multiple runs. The Braves rank seventh in runs per game, while the Red Sox rank 17th. Atlanta also has the fifth-ranked bullpen in baseball, while Boston just dropped into the bottom five. Too large of a mismatch across the board.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Dallas Keuchel is having a very solid season thus far — posting a 2.70 ERA — and yet to give up more than three runs in a start. That’s the type of consistency you want to back, especially against a slipping Twins’ offense. Minnesota got a pair of runs on Keuchel in his start against them back in July, but it was after pitching five shutout innings, with the White Sox leading 5-0 after five. The Twins have slipped all the way down to 19th in runs per game, and average just four runs at home.
The White Sox offense has been cooking lately, scoring at least five runs in five-straight games, and averaging seven runs per game during that span. Chicago will face Michael Pineda, who will be making his first start of 2020. Following a promising start to his career, Pineda had an ERA above 4.00 for the fourth straight season in 2019. With the pitching and hitting edge on their side, the White Sox are priced too cheap on the F5.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.