The TOUR Championship starts this Friday at East Lake GC in Atlanta, Ga., and betting this tournament will be different than most other weeks.
Betting on who will win the TOUR Championship with the starting strokes is one option. The other is to bet golfers who will win without the starting strokes and who has the lowest score after 72 holes.
Rory McIlroy, who started in fifth place and five strokes back last year, had a fantastic week gaining 11 strokes tee-to-green and ended up winning by four strokes. The “ceiling” game is what you’ll need if you decide to back any guys outside of the top 5, which doesn’t provide enough value or margin for error when betting. The preference is yours on how you want to build your betting card but the value resides heavily in the market without the starting strokes. Although Tony Finau is a recurring character in these articles and a stud tee-to-green, he’ll need to perform close to his ceiling and have all the guys above and around him play at their average if he’s going to win the TOUR Championship, which is highly unlikely. Without the starting strokes, Tony is definitely in play.
WITHOUT FEDEX CUP STARTING STROKES
Webb Simpson to win +1100
As was mentioned in the DraftKings Preview and the Early Look article on the PGA TOUR website, Webb’s had an excellent season this year with two wins, both on bermuda greens. He’s a stud on par 70s, has been the best putter on bermuda greens over the past 50 rounds and is first on TOUR in scoring average at about two-and-a-half shots less than the TOUR average.
Tony Finau to Win +1900
Two top 5s at both TPC Harding Park and last week at Olympia Fields firmly support his propensity to play well under challenging conditions. Another top 10 at the Memorial back in July adds to the “1-win” golfer’s ability on challenging courses since the restart. The putting was great last week and he’s gained on the greens in each of his three visits resulting in two top 7s and a top 15. Finau’s been great on par 4s between 450 to 500 yards and is no stranger to going low, ranking fourth in birdies or better gained over the past three months. Make sure to back up your outright with a top 5, as he’s got three in his past five starts.
Tyrell Hatton to Win +3500
Hatton will need close to his ceiling game to get this done but he presents some value at his number, especially given how consistent he’s been tee-to-green over the past two tournaments. His putting has been quite shaky, losing strokes in three of his previous four tournaments but with Hatton starting eight shots off the lead, he’ll be looking to fire at every pin (as will all of these guys chasing DJ and Jon Rahm). Good thing he ranks 14th in opportunities gained and fifth in birdies or better gained since the start of the FEC Playoffs.
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