Thursday is usually a small baseball slate and that’s exactly what we have this evening. Nonetheless, we still have plenty of betting opportunities to take advantage of, so let’s get right into it. As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s slate.
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres:
Chris Paddack is really struggling on the mound this season and it’s not going to get much easier this evening. Overall, Paddack sports a 4.59 FIP, a 43.2% hard-hit rate and a 1.9 HR/9. Now he faces a Giants team that touched him up for two runs on six hits but would eventually score seven to win the game. Paddack has allowed at least four runs in three of his last five starts and the Giants have been a sneaky offense to target, especially with these lower run totals. You may be surprised to know that against righties, the Giants have a .341 wOBA, a .176 ISO and just a 21.5% K%. I really like this total and thus have made this my favorite play for tonight.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays’ overall moneyline is quite rich at -200, which I usually tend to shy away from. Instead, I’ll be looking to back them through the first five innings. The Rays have really limited opposing offenses through the first five innings, allowing an average of 2.19 runs, which is one of the lowest in the league. In terms of scoring, the Rays average 2.88 runs through the first five on average, which ranks 12th. The Red Sox’ pitching staff has been brutal and tonight they run out lefty Mike Kickham, who has made only two starts thus far. The Rays are one of the better teams on offense against lefties, boasting a .341 wOBA and a .206 ISO.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
So first piece of information I have to admit is that the Dodgers haven’t posted great numbers against lefties. I was honestly shocked that this prolific offense has just a .307 wOBA with a .130 ISO against lefties in 2020. While that would normally be a red flag, the horrific numbers posted by Madison Bumgarner quickly changed my mind.
We all know that Bumgarner hasn’t been good this season but when you really dive into the numbers, it gets so much worse. Through 21 1/3 innings, Bumgarner has a 9.08 FIP, a 3.8 HR/9, a 48.6% hard-hit rate AND only a 15.0% K%. There are truly no redeeming qualities about his starts at all. So with that in mind, I have no worries about the Dodgers’ numbers against lefties. That’s a good reason why the under of 5.5 is currently set at +105. Even if by chance Bumgarner gets by fairly unfazed, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been hit hard lately and has a 5.33 FIP and a 15.2% BB% over the last week.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.