We’ve got a teeny tiny six-game featured MLB slate tonight on DraftKings, as we’re now within three weeks to the end of this truncated season. Sure, I assume most of you will also be partaking in the return of NFL DFS this evening; but, when your Texans-heavy builds fall through, you’re going to want to have a few baseball lineups in your back pocket, right?
With that in mind, here are a few of my favorite stacking opportunities for Thursday.
Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Madison Bumgarner ($7,200) might have a long history of success against the Dodgers, but this is no longer that World Series MVP we all used to know and love. The veteran left-hander has been an absolute train wreck so far in 2020, with his hefty new contact looking like a worse decision by the day for Diamondbacks’ management. To put it simply, Bumgarner’s velocity has completely vanished. Most concerning is the state of his cutter. While the LHP averaged 87.5 mph with the offering last year, the pitch is now sitting at just 83.5 mph through his first five starts in Arizona. As you might expect, that dropoff has led to opponents slugging .686 against one of the old Bumgarner’s most trusted weapons. The 31-year-old’s 9.08 FIP and 3.80 HR/9 aren’t exactly refreshing to see, either.
Players to Consider
Cody Bellinger ($5,800)
Mookie Betts ($5,700)
Corey Seager ($5,300)
Will Smith ($4,200)
A.J. Pollock ($3,900)
Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
The nice thing about stacking the Rays is that it’s generally a pretty cost-effective way of getting exposure to an above-average offense. It’s also a pleasure to know that Kevin Cash is probably looking at the same split stats as you are right now, meaning the players you want to see in tonight’s batting order are probably going to be there. Specific to this evening, Tampa Bay will draw Mike Kickham ($5,900), a 31-year-old journeyman who’s surrendered 40 earned runs in this 35.1 innings he’s pitched at the MLB level in his career. Even if the southpaw can survive a trip through the Rays’ lineup, his pitch count won’t be high, and we’ll see a lot of the Red Sox bullpen on Thursday. It’s a collection of arms that’s posted a 9.24 ERA so far in September. Need I say more?
Players to Consider
Brandon Lowe ($5,400)
Mike Brosseau ($4,700)
Willy Adames ($3,800)
Hunter Renfroe ($3,300)
Randy Arozarena ($3,200)
3. San Francisco Giants
This is a small slate — one that could get even smaller if Orioles-Yankees gets rained out. So, in such a scenario, you sometimes have to take a few risks. When it comes to Thursday, that means stacking against Chris Paddack ($8,300). Although, when I say that in 2020, it’s definitely not as crazy as it would sound in 2019. Paddack actually hasn’t been too good this season, pitching to a 4.59 FIP across 47.1 innings, while also conceding a whopping 1.90 home runs per nine. Specifically, it’s been left-handed bats that have given him the most issue, as Paddack’s 30.2% strikeout rate against RHB falls to just 19.6% in the opposite split. The Giants, who own an impressive 137 wRC+ across the past two weeks, have enough LHBs to make Paddack’s night a long one.
Players to Consider
Mike Yastrzemski ($5,300)
Evan Longoria ($4,400)
Alex Dickerson ($4,200)
Brandon Crawford ($4,100)
Brandon Belt ($3,300)
4. San Diego Padres
Editor’s Note: Giants SP Trevor Cahill ($6,600) will start Thursday, with Smyly “piggybacking” in relief.
You know which team also boats a 137 wRC+ across the past two weeks? That would be the Padres, who come into today’s slate leading MLB with 258 runs scored. Needless to say, it’s probably not the return matchup that Drew Smyly ($7,500) was hoping for, as the left-hander makes his way off the IL. Smyly hasn’t really thrown enough in 2020 to get a good impression of his stuff in the present, but we do have insight into how awful he threw the ball in 2019. Among the 130 pitchers with over 100 innings of work last season, Smyly allowed the most home runs per nine of the group (2.53). The veteran’s .366 opponent expected wOBA was also the sixth-worst mark of the 108 pitchers who faced 500-plus hitters. I doubt San Diego welcomes Smyly back with open arms.
Players to Consider
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,000)
Manny Machado ($5,700)
Austin Nola ($4,900)
Trent Grisham ($4,800)
Wil Myers ($4,100)
Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.