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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for September 11

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

We’ve had quite a few schedule curveballs thrown our way this season. We’ve seen some slates lock around 4:05 p.m. ET, a 6:05 p.m. ET start time, we’ve been all over the map. Friday will continue that trend with an 8:05 p.m. ET start! So now you have a bit of extra time to get all that research in for this evening, which features a 10-game slate.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]


Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lucas Giolito, $10,500, CWS (-315) vs. DET (+250) — Giolito is a massive favorite over the Tigers tonight and rightfully so. The last time he faced them, Gioltio threw seven shutout innings allowing no runs on three hits and struck out 13, for a massive 43.4 DKFP. The Tigers have the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties at 28.3%, to go with a .303 wOBA and a .160 ISO. While the Tigers have been a tough team against lefties, as you can see, it has not translated against righties. Between him and Shane Bieber ($11,000), paying up at starting pitcher is looking as if it’ll be a popular play for tonight’s slate.

Other notable favorites: Mike Fiers ($7,200; -182) vs. Rangers, Brandon Woodruff ($8,500; -180) vs. Cubs

Highest Projected Total

LAA (+118, 5.5 runs) vs. COL (-139, 6.5 runs) 12 runs — Ah yes, Coors Field is back in our lives for this weekend as the Rockies host the Angels. It’s a huge total for the Rockies facing Griffin Canning ($7,300), who has had his struggles on the road with a .374 wOBA and a 5.33 FIP. Both sides of the plate have been hitting him hard, so you can truly make any stack you’d like against him. The only downfall here is that the Angels bullpen has been very good as of late, posting a 2.83 FIP over 24.1 innings across the last week.

On the Angels side, they have a 5.5 run total against German Marquez ($7,400), who has been, understandably, wrecked at home this season. His .363 wOBA looks bad, but his 3.14 FIP is actually lower than his road number at 4.13. The concern here for me is how well the Angels have hit righties, boasting a .341 wOBA and .185 ISO.

Other notable team totals: OAK (5.5) vs. TEX, SDP (4.5) vs. SFG


Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.


Weather Concerns

CLE @ MIN — Will be interesting how this one plays out, seeing as Bieber is the most expensive pitcher on the slate. Rain is in the forecast, but it seems like something they could be able to play through. This is going to be one to monitor, regardless, as a PPD would bring more ownership to Giolito.


Splits to Start

Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Johnny Cueto, .373, 5.57
Garrett Richards, .361, 4.96
Jon Lester, .352, 3.51

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Lucas Giolito, .244 3.16
Shane Bieber, .265, 3.02
Caleb Smith, .281, 4.19


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Alex Cobb, .396, 6.62
Yusei Kikuchi, .362, 5.38
Jon Lester, .345, 4.77

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kenta Maeda, .219, 3.02
Brandon Woodruff, .254, 2.52
Luis Castillo, .261 2.98


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Lucas Giolito, CWS vs. DET, $10,500 — We’ve already talked about why I like this spot for Giolito in depth, so I don’t want to go over the same info again. But truly, in terms of weather and strikeout upside, this is the matchup you want to target with the Tigers leading the league in strikeout rate against righties. In that prior matchup, Giolito struck out 13 — the second time he’s been in double-digits this season — and he also produced a ridiculous an 18% swing-and-miss rate, which is the best of his career.


Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Trent Grisham, SDP vs. SF, $4,800 — I love this spot for Grisham going up against Johnny Cueto ($8,000) in San Diego. Cueto, who hasn’t pitched much over the past few years, has consistently struggled against lefties and it’s a big reason for me liking this matchup. On the season, Cueto has a .353 wOBA, a 4.59 FIP and has allowed three of his seven home runs versus LHBs. As for Grisham, he’s posted quite an impressive line against righties with a .371 wOBA and a .246 ISO with seven of his eight home runs.


Save Big by Drafting

Jedd Gyorko, MIL vs. CHC, $3,900 —You know who has been CRUSHING lefties this season? Gyorko. His numbers in these matchups are quite wild and now he brings that against Jon Lester ($8,300), who has really been struggling. Gyorko boasts a very impressive .460 wOBA and .485 ISO against lefties. Meanwhile, Lester has allowed all nine of his home runs to righties to go with a .362 wOBA and a 6.12 FIP.


Favorite Team To Stack

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (vs. Luis Garcia/Jordan Lyles) — Luis Garcia ($4,000) is set to open this game followed by Jordan Lyles ($6,400), who has been a total disaster this season. With the assumption that Garcia will be out by the third inning, we can focus on Lyles, who has a .384 wOBA and a 6.42 FIP at home this season. Lefties hit him hard, righties hit him hard — it truly doesn’t matter. Either way, I’ll be focusing on the A’s bats in this spot, who should be in line to post some healthy fantasy production.


Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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