Man, we have one of these insane start times for MLB again today!!!!! Today’s slate starts at 4:10 p.m. ET AND features three games that are implementing the seven-inning rules with CIN vs. PIT, OAK vs. SEA and STL vs. MIL. Let’s get into all the information because we DON’T HAVE ANY TIME LEFT!!!!
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Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Trevor Bauer, $10,800 vs. PIT (TBD) — So listen, as I began writing this early Monday morning, the lines available on the DraftKings Sportsbook were very limited. I’m going to make an executive decision and say that the Reds going up against the Pirates is going to be one of the biggest favorites on the board. This offense simply cannot do anything with right-handed pitching with a .268 wOBA, a .132 ISO and a 24.4 K%, which ranks ninth in the league. Bauer has been stellar this season with a 2.90 FIP, a 36 K% and a 12.7% swing-and-miss rate. Even if the Reds aren’t the biggest favorites on this slate, they are in my heart.
Other notable favorites: Touki Toussaint ($5,600; -162) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Highest Projected Total
ATL (-162, 5.5 runs) vs. BAL (+138, 4.5 runs) 10 runs —The Braves are one of the bigger favorites on this slate as they take on the Orioles and Jorge Lopez ($5,900). He’d been skating on thin ice lately when taking the mound and the Mets finally broke through against him, tagging him for five runs on six hits through 4 2⁄3 innings. The Braves are one of the best hitting clubs in the league against righties with a .372 wOBA, a .236 ISO and a 23.4 K%. This should be no problem against Lopez, who is allowing a 44.2% hard-hit rate and has a 4.50 FIP. I imagine the Braves will be one of the more popular stacks on the day but on such a weird slate, it’s warranted.
Other notable team totals: Twins (4.5) vs. White Sox
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Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Touki Toussaint, .453 7.48
Jorge Lopez, .396, 5.94
Dylan Cease, .369, 6.40
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .257, 3.71
Dinelson Lamet, .277, 3.59
Jose Berrios, .302, 4.07
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Vince Velasquez, .348, 5.35
Dylan Cease, .326, 4.48
Jesus Luzardo, .314, 4.59
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Pablo Lopez, .269, 3.58
Trevor Bauer, .274, 3.11
Clayton Kershaw, .275 3.77
Pitcher to Build Around
Trevor Bauer, CIN vs. PIT, $10,800 — As I talked about earlier, this is such a great spot for Bauer that it’s hard to pass up. Normal scoring applies even though this is only a seven-inning game, so I wouldn’t shy away from using Bauer in this spot against truly one of the worst offenses in the league. With the high strikeout potential and a team that has one of the lowest ISO in the league against righties, Bauer is my guy.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Marcell Ozuna, ATL at BAL, $5,400 — Ozuna has been crushing righties, posting a .389 wOBA with a .229 ISO with eight of the 14 home runs he’s hit. The Braves also have one of the highest team totals and are facing the aforementioned Lopez. Even after Lopez is out of this game, the Orioles’ bullpen has been a major concern as of late, posting a 6.76 FIP, a 2.2 HR/9 and only a 5.4 K/9. This should present plenty of opportunities for Ozuna and the Braves to make some noise in this game.
Save Big by Drafting
DJ Stewart, BAL vs. ATL, $2,400 — Staying in this game, let’s go with a real value play with Steward going against Touki Toussaint ($5,600), who is making his first start since Aug 23. His numbers against lefties have been downright brutal and he enters this game with a .404 wOBA, a 6.41 FIP and two of the five home runs he’s allowed this season. Meanwhile, you have Stewart, who has been making the most of his opportunities this season with a .463 wOBA, a .444 ISO and five of the six home runs he’s hit. Those are quite impressive numbers for someone who is priced as cheap as he is.
Favorite Team To Stack
MIN vs. CWS (vs. Dylan Cease) — I don’t think I need to write up more about that Braves-Orioles game so let’s chit chat about the Twins. They’ll be taking on Dylan Cease ($8,400), who has been awfully lucky thus far. His 5.95 FIP indicates a storm is coming soon and the Twins would be a perfect team for that to happen against. Cease is not striking batters out at all with a 15.4 K% and thus has been relying upon contact for outs. with a 40.4% fly-ball rate, trouble is brewing. On the year, the Twins have a .336 wOBA and a .218 ISO against righties, making this one of my favorite stacks.
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