clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Fantasy Football Picks: Titans vs. Broncos DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Julian Edlow preps you for Monday’s 10:20 p.m. ET NFL contest between the Titans and Broncos with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

The first Sunday of football is in the books, but as is the case every season, we get a double-header for MNF. The Titans travel to face the Broncos in the late MNF showdown, in what projects as a limited offensive game. The Broncos had been 1.5-point favorites most of the offseason, but notable injuries have shifted Denver to 3-point home dogs, with the total sitting at just 41.

Let’s break down Titans-Broncos from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings Showdown lineups here: NFL $600K Monday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (TEN vs DEN)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry ($11,600) is the safest play in this game and is likely to be the highest owned player on the Showdown slate. Henry ended last season on a historic run but I think we have to expect some regression compared to expectations this season. Since the game features a couple of pretty lacking offenses, I think Henry is fine to roster. However, I’d lean toward using him in FLEX over CPT. If you want to fade him altogether, I think that could be a profitable tournament strategy. It’s worth noting Henry had his worst game of the season in Denver in 2019, rushing for just 28 yards on 15 carries in a 16-0 loss.

The loss of Von Miller combined with Bradley Chubb being limited to begin the season leaves Denver’s defense in a tough spot. Maybe that means a big game for Henry but it almost certainly means less pressure on Ryan Tannehill ($10,000). Tannehill didn’t do much in this matchup last season but it isn’t a game we should judge him on — it’s the game he came on in relief of Marcus Mariota and kept the starting job after. Playing in Denver is far from an ideal matchup but it could be softer than the numbers indicate.

While Denver is set up with solid cornerback play, the loss of Chris Harris is going to hurt the Broncos’ defense. A.J. Brown ($8,600) was awful during the Titans’ postseason run but he was one of the hottest WRs in the NFL down the stretch of the regular season — going for 100-plus yards and a TD in four of his final six games. Fading Henry with a Tannehill/Brown stack isn’t the worst GPP core.

Corey Davis ($6,000) is listed as questionable but you likely don’t have to read much into his status for this one — he’s been practicing and should suit up. While I’m not concerned with his health, I am concerned with his salary. Davis was pretty consistently a non-factor last season and lost a ton of his upside with the emergence of Brown. If I added a second Titans WR to my stack, it’d be Adam Humphries ($2,200). Humphries should play out of the slot and was a consistent enough option to trust at this price. He was $5,400 the last time we saw him healthy on a Showdown.

While it will be interesting to finally see Jonnu Smith ($5,800) begin a season as the starter, he might be a bit too pricey for his role. He was only more expensive once last season and it was after three straight games of either exceeding 100 yards or scoring a touchdown. It’s also worth noting he was a complete bust in that game, gaining just seven yards.


Denver Broncos

Regardless of all the Titans’ success last season, they did allow the third-most DKFP to QBs. Drew Lock ($9,600) does have some new weapons to target but I’d really like to see Courtland Sutton ($9,000) play in this game to feel good about Denver’s passing attack. The matchup dictates a play here, though, and given the flip in perspective on this game, you should get lower ownership.

I mentioned Sutton, who’s listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. He suffered the injury last week in practice, so there’s no way he’ll be 100% for this game. It would take some extremely encouraging news for me to roster him. Whether Sutton is out or not, I think this means Lock will have to rely more on Jerry Jeudy ($7,200). I felt Jeudy was the best WR prospect in the draft and the spot sets up for him to make some noise in his NFL debut. Given Sutton’s status and Tennessee ranking 21st in DKFP allowed to WR last season, Jeudy is my favorite play on the Denver side.

Tim Patrick ($2,800) and Daesean Hamilton ($1,800) would have been afterthoughts on this slate but if Sutton winds up ruled out they become solid value. Again, I expect Jeudy to be the go-to-guy but no Sutton means both of these plays are significantly underpriced.

It’s a pretty decent matchup for Noah Fant ($6,200) as well, given that the Titans ranked 22nd against the TE position last season. Fant’s a bit too pricey for me if Sutton suits up but without him on the field, I’d expect more balls thrown his way.

The new split we see at RB for Denver should be telling. Melvin Gordon ($8,000) will make his Denver debut and Phillip Lindsay ($7,600) is priced right behind him. If these guys are going to share time, they both seem way overpriced against an average defense versus RBs. If you’re playing multiple GPP lineups, maybe sprinkling these guys into some lineups makes sense but they should both cap each other’s production.


THE OUTCOME

I’m not buying the Titans’ hype coming into this season but Denver is in a really bad spot from an injury standpoint. I think this is a coin-flip game, so I’ll go a little contrarian to the home team — the Broncos are historically good at home in September. I think both D/ST and kickers could also be in play for some value in this Showdown. But I’ll get a little weird here and use Jerry Jeudy ($10,800 CP) in the Captain’s spot and hope he’s as good as I think he can be.

Final Score: Titans 17, Broncos 20

Set your DraftKings Showdown lineups here: NFL $600K Monday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (TEN vs DEN)


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.