The purpose of this article is to inform you of some of the biggest risers and fallers in terms of DraftKings salary from the previous week. This will be a way to discover some potential value plays or potentially anyone that is overpriced in reaction to a strong week that we should consider fading. Let’s examine some of those players and their outlook for Week 2.
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Marquise Brown ($6,200) vs. Houston Texans
Week 1 Salary: $5,100 (+$1,100 increase)
Brown certainly knows how to start the season on the right foot (no pun intended). Last season he made only four catches but went for 147 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins. This season, he made five receptions on six targets for 101 yards, good for 18.1 DKFP against the Browns. With Lamar Jackson saying during the offseason that he wants deep passes and out-breaking pass routes to be a bigger part of the Ravens’ offense in 2020, here’s hoping this is just the beginning for Brown.
Week 2 brings a very favorable matchup against the Texans, who allowed 34 points and 374 total offensive yards to the Chiefs in the 2020 opener. Brown split his snaps between the slot and outside at 13 and 24, respectively. The Texans could barely contain another speedster in Tyreek Hill, who caught five of his six targets for 46 yards and an average of 9.2 YPR. While we always think of the Ravens as a run first offense, the additional passing element, if coming to fruition, would be a huge boost for Brown.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700) vs. Washington Football Team
Week 1 Salary: $6,800 (+$900 increase)
It’s no big surprise to see Hopkins’ salary go flying upwards after an extremely impressive debut with the Cardinals. If you think QB Kyler Murray ($6,400; -$300) isn’t excited about his new toy, try telling that to the 16 targets Hopkins received. Of those targets, Hopkins pulled down 14 of them for 151 yards, en route to a 32.1 DKFP performance. Hopkins simply abused the 49ers secondary and Emmanuel Moseley was the prime target, as he caught seven of the eight targets thrown against him for 61 yards and four first downs.
Week 2 brings a matchup against Washington, who shocked the Eagles with a 27-17 win. Looking at the snap count for Hopkins in Week 1, he played 77 snaps with 59 of those lined up on the left side. With that in mind, that would line him up against Jimmy Moreland. Last season, Moreland allowed 33 receptions on 40 targets for an average of 10.3 YPR but was only scored against once. No matter how you slice it, this Washington secondary isn’t exactly one to fear and and early projected 46 over/under total from DraftKings Sportsbook says we could see some scoring in this game. Follow the uptick in salary and grab Hopkins once again.
Keenan Allen ($5,700) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 1 Salary: $6,400 (-$700 decrease)
Tyrod Taylor ($5,300; -$200) was seeing some love in cash lineups due to his cheap salary and rushing ability, but it’s safe to say that was a complete disaster. He managed just 9.02 DKFP, completing just over half of his 30 pass attempts for 208 yards. Taylor didn’t exactly do much with his legs either, rushing for seven yards on six attempts.
With the quarterback struggling, it has a trickle down effect to his receivers and Allen is a prime example. He drew eight targets, which was good, but only came down with four of them for 37 yards and 7.7 DKFP. Now the Chargers will be facing the Chiefs, who don’t boast a great secondary. Allen plays all over the field and saw 30 of his 70 snaps on the left side and 26 in the slot. I would love to take advantage of this low salary, as we never saw him below $6,100 in 2019. However, I simply can’t trust Taylor right now. The Chargers are huge 8.5 underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook, so the game script is in his favor, even if it’s hard to get excited about his quarterback.
Rob Gronkowski ($4,100) vs. Carolina Panthers
Week 1 Salary: $4,900 (-$800 decrease)
While we all expected some rust from some of these teams without any preseason action, the Buccaneers were one of those teams that showed some big signs. Tom Brady ($6,500) didn’t seem like he was getting the right read with some of his receivers, especially with Mike Evans ($6,400; -$500). If there was anyone that he was familiar with in this offense, it was Gronk. Even with all the prior rapport, Gronk drew three targets in which he caught two for 11 yards. It’s not like Gronk wasn’t on the field either, playing 54 snaps compared to the 41 of O.J. Howard ($3,900; +$200), who caught four of his six targets. Gronk was blocking much more, for what it’s worth, on 31 of his snaps.
With how loaded this offense is, I can’t go back to Gronk in Week 2. The Panthers were one of the toughest teams against opposing tight ends last season, allowing an average of 9.7 DKFP. They were one of five teams to allow less than double-digit fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Raiders, who the Panthers faced in Week 1, are a good test to see how that defense will look this season. While they did allow seven receptions to the position, Darren Waller and Jason Witten combined for 47 yards. Unless we see a dramatic change, I think Gronk is left on the board.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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