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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Heat vs. Celtics Showdown

Greg Ehrenberg gives his top lineup advice for Thursday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Celtics and Heat, which starts at 7:00 p.m. ET.

With just one game on today’s NBA slate, we are focusing on the DraftKings Showdown contest between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Miami is up 1-0 with a chance to take a commanding lead after winning Game 1 in overtime.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: NBA Showdown $350K Thursday Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (MIA vs BOS)

Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Showdown Strategy

Boston Celtics

A note on the Celtics, Gordon Hayward ($7,400) is nearing a return. He’s listed as doubtful to play tonight, but it seems we have a chance to roster him in Game 3 of the series. I am interested to see how he looks when active, but we don’t need to worry about that for today unless something dramatically changes with his status. For now, I assume he isn’t playing.

As for the available expensive players on Boston, Jaylen Brown ($8,600) and Jayson Tatum ($10,400) carry the largest price tags. Of the two, I view Tatum as the stronger play. Tatum was the star in Game 1 from a fantasy perspective, finishing with 67 DKFP. He did this despite shooting just 41.7% from the field. His ceiling as actually greater than what he showed last game if he ups his efficiency. Brown is fine, but I don’t usually find myself paying a premium for him. His 35.16 DKFP average for the season is less than all the players priced around him.

It might not feel like this is the case, but Kemba Walker ($12,300 CP/$8,200) is a slightly better fantasy producer than Brown this season. At a cheaper price, give me Kemba. He struggled in the Celtics’ last series against the Raptors, but they have an elite perimeter defense. This isn’t the case for Miami and Walker should have an easier time scoring in the Eastern Conference Finals.

For value, Brad Wanamaker ($2,800) is the first name that stands out. In Game 1, he scored 33.75 DKFP and racked up five steals. That isn’t sustainable, but he played in overtime, which is a good indication that coach Brad Stevens has confidence in his backup point guard. He’s my favorite value option in this game and we can also give a look to Robert Williams ($2,600), who has shown the ability to score DKFP quickly in short spurts.

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler ($9,200) underwhelmed in the first game of the series, scoring 37.75 DKFP in 43 minutes. One slight concern was his lack of usage. Despite the tight game, Butler only had a 20.8% usage rating. Boston’s strong perimeter defense could mean more of the offense filters through Bam Adebayo ($8,800) than Butler. Adebayo scored 43.5 DKFP on Tuesday and had one of the greatest blocks I have ever seen by denying Tatum at the rim in overtime to seal the victory.

It doesn’t look like Goran Dragic ($7,800) is slowing down anytime soon. Heading into free agency, The Dragon has upped his value in a big way with his playoff performances. He scored 46.75 DKFP in Game 1 to lead the Heat, giving him at least 35 DKFP in seven of 10 playoff games. It’s pretty crazy to think that Miami has only lost one playoff game.

In the mid-tier of pricing, Tyler Herro ($7,000) and Jae Crowder ($6,800) both look fairly priced. Herro brings a bit more upside and Crowder is a bit safer of a player as a starter. Give me the ceiling of Herro in tournaments. He’s shown a flair for the dramatic in the playoffs and hit a number of huge shots in the postseason. Herro came an assist shy of a triple-double in Game 1.

The Outcome

Overall, I think the Celtics are the slightly better team in this series. I give them the slight edge in every game and I agree with DraftKings Sportsbook making the Celtics a 2.5-point favorite. These teams are pretty even, but Boston offers a bit more depth. I like them to win tonight and even the series at a game apiece.

Final Series Score: Celtics 106, Heat 103

Set your DraftKings lineups here: NBA Showdown $350K Thursday Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (MIA vs BOS)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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