The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver. Note: fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.
The DraftKings Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race slate locks at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Set your DraftKings lineups here: NAS $200K Front Row [$50K to 1st] (Cup)
1. Brad Keselowski ($11,200) - The Bristol spring winner returns with an additional two low downforce, high horsepower wins (Richmond and New Hampshire). Keselowski wasn’t the best car in the first Bristol race, but he started on the pole and remained upfront all race. He’s on the pole again. (5.0 fppk)
2. Ryan Blaney ($8,800) - History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. In the spring 2018 Bristol race, Blaney was running away from the field early in the race, but lappers wrecked in front of him and took him out. This spring, Blaney was in 2nd place and spun, and lapper Ty Dillon plowed into him. (4.0 fppk)
3. Denny Hamlin ($12,000) - In the spring race, Hamlin led the most laps, but he spun out at the very end of the race. Make sure to follow Hamlin on social media this week. He has been very critical of Bruton Smith and Bristol in the past for going rogue with track setups. The teams build the cars based on how the race track will be prepared, and it has become common for Bristol to change the preparation the night before the race. (5.0 fppk)
4. Chase Elliott ($10,700) - A late-race restart wreck while battling for the lead did not work out for him in the spring. Elliott returned to Bristol and although it was not an official win, he did win one million dollars and proved that he had a great setup. (4.3 fppk)
5. Erik Jones ($9,400) - He led 260 laps at Bristol in the fall of 2017 and finished fifth in the fall 2018 race. Last year, Bristol did not work for him in the high downforce package. The low downforce package returned in the spring race, and Jones finished 5th. (3.7 fppk)
6. Jimmie Johnson ($8,600) - His last two wins were at the high banked, concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in a low downforce package. Johnson is not going to lead 100 laps, but he could lead the final 10 laps. He finished third in the spring race. (3.6 fppk)
7. Kevin Harvick ($11,600) - The No. 4 car has been great in the high downforce package, but it has not been a legitimate contender in any of the high horsepower, low downforce races at the flat tracks. At the high banked concrete track in Dover, Harvick won in the high horsepower, low downforce package. (5.7 fppk)
8. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000) - In 2017, pit road mistakes cost Truex two possible wins at Bristol. In the five races that have followed, Truex is averaging a 22nd place finish. That could easily turn around based on the way that he has been running lately. At the high banked concrete track in Dover, Truex earned two second place finishes. (4.7 fppk)
9. Joey Logano ($9,700) - He barely led any laps in the spring race, but he was upfront all race and was in a position to win at the end. Unfortunately for Logano, the last restart was hairy and Elliott and Logano ended up in the wall. Logano is not a favorite, but he can win. The Team Penske cars have been unstoppable in this racing package. (3.8 fppk)
10. Clint Bowyer ($8,400) - High downforce or low downforce, it does not matter to Bowyer as long as it’s a short track. Bowyer has been good in either package at Bristol, but he was exceptional in the low downforce package in the 2017 and 2018 Bristol races. He is the only driver with a top-10 finish in each of the last five Bristol races. (3.9 fppk)
11. Kyle Busch ($10,400) - The theory in the spring race was that 500 laps and plenty of cautions would provide enough of an opportunity to get the car dialed in. It’s clear that the lack of practice has prevented Kyle Busch from leading a lot of laps this season, but one of his best races was the Bristol spring race. (3.0 fppk)
12. Christopher Bell ($7,100) - It’s purely a matter of chance. Bell is a top-10 short track driver and he has nearly a top-10 car. The question is whether his race will be mistake free or not. Even if Bell is mistake free, he has to avoid other drivers’ mistakes. (3.5 fppk)
13. Aric Almirola ($8,200) - The No. 10 car has been a consistent top-10 machine every week. There is only one race track where Almirola and the No. 10 car have consistently struggled and that’s Bristol. Almirola has wrecked in each of the last four Bristol races. (4.4 fppk)
14. Kurt Busch ($9,100) - In the last four Bristol races, Busch has four top-10 finishes in each race. At first glance, top-10 finishes might not seem like an accomplishment, but Bristol is chaotic. Busch is one of two drivers to record a top 10 in each of the last four Bristol races. (3.8 fppk)
15. Ryan Newman ($7,300) - He’s finished 15th or better in nine of the last 10 Bristol races. Over the last seven Bristol races, his average finish is 11th. If history repeats itself, then Newman will be the last car on the lead lap causing nightmares for the leader. (3.3 fppk)
16. Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100) - This is his favorite track and he has nothing to lose. He has to win in order to advance into the next round of the playoffs. It might sound crazy, but he should have won this race driving for Leavine Family Racing last season. In the closing laps, Newman blocked DiBenedetto causing damage and eventually costing DiBenedetto the lead. (3.8 fppk)
17. Bubba Wallace ($6,800) - Richard Petty Motorsports saved Bubba Wallace’s career. How has Bubba repaid The King? Bubba jumped ship at the first opportunity. In all fairness, Bubba has to leave. He was never going to win with RPM. Hopefully, the two part ways amicably, and solid finishes to the season allow RPM to keep the lights on in the garage at least one more year. (3.7 fppk)
18. Chris Buescher ($6,000) - This has not been a good year for Buescher, but it says nothing of his talent or the quality of the Roush cars. Buescher blames his poor season on the cancellation of practice. This week his car won’t be great, but if he avoids the wrecks, then there is a good chance that he can be optimal. (3.9 fppk)
19. Austin Dillon ($7,800) - At Dover, Dillon finished 15th and ninth; he never runs well at Dover. That weekend was when Dillon knew he had a chance in the playoffs. After two playoff races and two very fast cars built by RCR, now we all know he has a chance in the playoffs. (4.7 fppk)
20. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,600) - If he doesn’t wreck, then he’s a top-10 contender at Bristol. That description fits every driver, but other drivers do not terrify DFS players the way that Stenhouse does. He’s wrecked in four straight Bristol races. It’s a bad play, but that’s better than when Stenhouse is a good play. (3.0 fppk)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
Set your DraftKings lineups here: NAS $200K Front Row [$50K to 1st] (Cup)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.