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Play in our 4th quarter $10k free-to-play pool, and if there’s a 20-plus yard touchdown in the 4th quarter, we’ll add $100k for the winners.
Who covers the 5.5-point spread?
The Bengals came out and showed good competition against a solid Chargers team in Joe Burrow’s NFL debut, and while I’d like to fade the Browns here, it’s just not the spot. Yes, the Browns got clobbered by the Ravens on Sunday, but I think this will be a much tougher turnaround for a rookie going on the road just four days after making his NFL debut. Cleveland has a solid defense, which should be able to limit the Bengals, and the Browns can pull out ahead with their rushing attack. I like the Browns to win by six-plus.
Does the total go OVER or UNDER 44.5 points?
Both matchups between these teams went over the mark in 2019, but I think we could see an uglier game here. This is a very tough total to gauge on the short week with a divisional matchup, so this is more of a gut call than diving into any numbers. Cleveland’s defense gave up 38 points to Lamar Jackson and crew, but Burrow should have a much more difficult time getting points on the board. I think if the Browns play this smart, which they don’t always do, they can build a lead and grind clock with their ground game.
Pick: Under 44.5
Who will have more passing yards — Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield?
Tough call here with both player props nearly identical, but going with the game script above, I like Cleveland to really establish the run. If that holds true, Cincy will be airing it out from behind. So nothing really matchup related here, but game script could mean some extra fourth quarter production for Burrow.
Pick: Joe Burrow
Who will have more rushing yards — Joe Mixon or Nick Chubb?
Even with the Browns getting smoked last week, they still did their best to get the ground game going. More passing downs led to a bit more Kareem Hunt than expected, as he finished with 13 carries for 72 yards. However, Chubb still carried 10 times for 60 yards, and I expect him to lead the backfield in this one. Joe Mixon did handle 19 carries for 69 yards against a solid Chargers defense, and has less competition in the backfield. This is another close one, but going with the game script that involves more late work for Chubb.
Pick: Nick Chubb
Who will have the most receiving yards — Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, A.J. Green, or any other player?
I think OBJ and Green will be the more popular picks as downfield weapons, but Landry performed well in this matchup last season, averaging 79 yards in two games against the Bengals. Landry should also be a contrarian play because he was on the injury report this week, but is expected to be active without any limitations. Going with other players is tempting, but scanning the board, it’s tough to convince yourself one of the other names leads the game. However, going off the board would be my next choice.
Pick: Jarvis Landry
Will the total rushing TD’s for both teams be OVER or UNDER 3.5?
Both teams leaned heavily on the run in Week 1, even the Browns while getting mopped. I expect to see a lot of Chubb and Hunt, particularly late for the Browns. Mixon just got paid, and the Bengals will need to use him often to take pressure off Burrow. I’ll be a little contrarian and say we see four rushing touchdowns in this one.
Pick: Over 3.5
Will the total passing TD’s for both teams be OVER or UNDER 3.5?
If I’m going over on the rushing touchdowns, but like the under in the game, we have to draw a line somewhere. Again, I’m taking the contrarian approach here, as the odds indicate we’re more likely to see four passing touchdowns than rushing. That said, neither of these teams threw a touchdown pass in Week 1.
Pick: Under 3.5
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